Edges for Nov 12, 2026

Leaning No: the newest official statements on November 10 and November 11 still say Huang remains CEO, and the board said it has confidence in him. With only about seven weeks left, a qualifying departure announcement looks less likely than the 15.5% price implies.

Leaning Yes: the current Tomatometer is already 56% from 16 critics, which is 11 points above the 45% cutoff. Even with a few weaker reviews before November 16, it has a decent buffer.

Slight lean to No: the market is only 4%, and the key fact is that NVIDIA has not announced Colette Kress as Jensen Huang’s successor as of November 11, 2026. The current reporting treats her as a possible interim or continuity choice, which would not satisfy the rule.

Leaning No: Apple is still about $1 trillion ahead as of November 11, and NVIDIA’s recent 6%+ drop shows it needs a major turnaround to finish first on December 31. The November 17 earnings report matters, but the gap is still very large.

Leaning No: the latest company and board statements still point to continuity, despite the ongoing investigation. That trims the implied leave risk a bit below the 88% market price.

Leaning No: the latest reports still show Hegseth in office with public Trump and Pentagon support. That keeps Yes below the 12% market price, around 9%.

Leaning Yes: the latest AAA reading is still well above $3.80, and only four days remain. The recent decline is real, but the market’s 44% Yes price looks a bit low versus the remaining cushion.

Leaning Yes: the freshest forecasts point to measurable rain in Chicago today, above the 56% market price. Final resolution still depends on CLIORD's recorded total, not just forecasted showers.

Leaning No: Krypton still has not appeared on the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard as of November 11, 2026, and there is no official Google confirmation or published HLE-Diamond score yet.

Leaning Yes: Kristersson still has the clearest path after the November 6 Sweden Democrats shift, and the Speaker set November 17 as the next key checkpoint. The market is below even odds, but the latest bargaining momentum modestly improves his chances.

Leaning No: the market is already very high, but as of November 12 there is still no public token, no contract address, and no confirmed launch date before November 30.

Leaning No: the November 6 U.S. airstrike on Qeshm Island appears to be a qualifying action, so the 14-day clock could not finish before the November 8 deadline.

Slight lean to Yes: Fable 5.2 already launched on November 9, 2026, and its benchmark gains suggest it is more likely than not to clear 1500 when it first shows up on Arena. The missing piece is the actual Text Arena score, so I would not move far from the market.

Slight lean to No: the market is probably right, but I’d trim it a bit because there’s still no setlist or Alicia Keys confirmation for "Empire State of Mind." JAY-Z is the only announced headliner, and this is one of his signature songs.

Leaning No: Hydrogen is still only internally tested, and there is no official HLE-Diamond debut or qualifying score yet. The key missing piece is whether Google actually lists it on the HLE site under the Hydrogen identity before the June 30, 2027 cutoff.

Leaning No: the latest core CPI trend is too hot for 2.3% or lower. October core CPI rose 0.3% for the third straight month, and the last published annual reading was already 2.6% in September 2026.

Leaning Yes: Le Pen still leads first-round polling at 34–36% and is favored in every tested runoff matchup, which keeps her path to the presidency more likely than the current price suggests.

Leaning No: the latest statements on November 10-11, 2026 point to de-escalation, not an invasion, and there is still no evidence the U.S. is trying to establish control over Iranian territory. The key fact is that officials described major combat as effectively over while keeping blockade and strike options in reserve.

Leaning Yes: San Francisco’s record and recent defensive reinforcements justify a small move above market. Chicago remains the biggest threat, but San Francisco still looks like the clearest NFC front-runner.

Leaning No: the latest traffic estimates are still far below the 60-call threshold, with November 10 reports putting activity around 20% of prewar levels and only about 46 transits per day in the most recent UKMTO window.

Leaning Yes: the strongest current signal is the reported $1.5 billion OTC FDV on November 11, 2026, which is well above the $800 million threshold. The main uncertainty is whether the public launch and the one-day-after price both arrive with enough liquidity to hold above $800 million.

Leaning No: the latest reporting shows Mamdani remains visible, but there is still no sign TIME has chosen him. That leaves the 25% Yes price a bit high.

Leaning No: the House moved 211–204 on November 11, 2026 to send the impeachment effort to committee, and there is still no resignation or removal announcement. Hegseth also has public backing from Trump, which makes a near-term exit less likely.

Leaning No: the latest October data show monthly inflation still running hot, but not hot enough to make a 4.5% 12-month CPI reading likely. The official release on November 10, 2026 could not even publish the October year-over-year rate because the needed October 2025 comparison is missing.

Leaning No: Milei is still a top contender, but the November 11, 2026 polling snapshot shows him losing a runoff to Axel Kicillof 42% to 39%, which is the clearest near-term signal.

Leaning Yes: Jensen Huang’s November 8 admission of infidelity materially raises divorce risk, even though there is still no filing or definitive divorce statement yet.

Leaning No: the latest official readings still miss the inflation شرط, with October CPI around 3.95% on November 10, 2026 while unemployment stayed at 4.1% on November 6, 2026. Soft landing now needs inflation to fall below 3.5% without unemployment rising above 5.0%, and the inflation side looks like the harder hurdle.

Leaning No: the freshest reports put NVIDIA in third place and add a new leadership-risk shock on November 12, making a rebound to second by month-end less likely than the 41% market price suggests.

Leaning Yes: BTC is currently inside the target band, which supports the Yes outcome more than the market price suggests. But negative momentum, ETF outflows, and regulatory worries keep the chance well below 50%.

Slight lean to No: the latest reports show Hegseth still serving, with impeachment blocked and White House support visible. That pushes below the 6% Yes price.

Leaning Yes: McIlroy is active, in form, and historically excellent at Jumeirah. His 23% market price looks a bit low versus sportsbook favorability and course history.

Slight lean to Yes: the bout is still on, and Gane remains the betting favorite despite some underdog support. That leaves Yes a little above the 63% market price.

Slight lean to Yes: Minnesota’s QB uncertainty and Wentz’s poor recent start favor Green Bay, though the market already prices that in. The Packers remain a modest home favorite, with only a small edge over the 62% price.

Leaning No: the market is near even, but the latest lineup signal removes Mbappé and leaves France thinner up front. France still have the better group position, so the edge against them is modest.

Leaning Yes: Belgium remains the strongest side by group record and prior meeting, though Lukaku’s absence trims upside. The market’s 54% is reasonable, but the evidence nudges slightly higher.

Leaning No: Henley remains alive, but he must clear the November 16 vote and then outlast several strong rivals to land exactly second. The 30% market price looks a bit high for that narrow finish.

Slight lean to Yes: the race is already at the threshold, and Alaska’s current count favors Democrats. Compared with the 95% market price, the evidence supports a slightly higher Yes probability.

Slight lean to Yes: the latest Fed comments and inflation data support a 25-basis-point hike, above the 86% market price. The main downside is a surprise move to 50 basis points.

Slight lean to No: the market is far above the threshold, and only a sharp one-day selloff changes the outcome. ETF outflows and macro pressure matter, but the price buffer remains sizeable versus the 94% Yes market.

Slight lean to Yes: the market already favors New York, and the injury report tilts slightly their way. That supports a small move above 56%.

Slight lean to Yes: the market already prices San Francisco as the road favorite, and Dallas’s absences are more damaging. San Francisco’s own injury uncertainty tempers the edge, so this stays close to the current 67% price.

Slight lean to No: the market is hovering just under the threshold, and recent ETF outflows and weak demand point slightly lower than the 37% Yes price.

Slight lean to Yes: England’s 80% market price already reflects most of the advantage, but Croatia’s injuries and suspensions still point slightly upward. The main risk is a tighter, low-scoring draw.

Slight lean to Yes: Luiten’s first-group tee time gives him a clean path to post the early clubhouse lead, but the field still contains stronger overall contenders. His 29% market price looks a little low versus that opening-wave advantage.

Slight lean to Yes: Barcelona is still the clear favorite at home, and Arsenal’s injury list is a real drag. The 81% market price is already high, so only a small upward adjustment is justified.

Slight lean to No: Thomas is available, but recent snap share and targets have fallen. That keeps his touchdown chance a bit below the 17% market price.