Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
Slight lean to No: the latest reports show Hegseth still serving, with impeachment blocked and White House support visible. That pushes below the 6% Yes price.
Analysis
November 11, 2026 reports say Hegseth still remains Secretary of Defense, and no resignation or firing has been reported. The House also voted 211–204 on November 10 to send the impeachment push to committee, stalling it for now.
Trump publicly backed Hegseth after the briefing, and Pentagon officials said he is committed through the end of the term. That leaves only a low-probability path to early departure before December 1.
Arguments
For
- Political pressure remains intense after the impeachment filing.
- Future congressional shifts could reopen removal attempts.
Against
- He has not resigned, been fired, or been replaced.
- Trump and Pentagon leadership publicly support keeping him.
Key drivers
- He is still serving as of November 11, 2026.
- Removal efforts were blocked in the House on November 10.
Risk factors
- Fresh scandals or legal developments could prompt abrupt removal.
- Congressional pressure could revive quickly after the committee referral.
Scenarios
Best case
If Trump orders a replacement this month, Yes rises to about 35%.
Most likely
Most likely he stays in office through December 1, with Yes around 4%.
Worst case
If no action follows the stalled impeachment effort, Yes falls to about 2%.
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