Fed decision in Dec 2026?
Slight lean to Yes: the latest Fed comments and inflation data support a 25-basis-point hike, above the 86% market price. The main downside is a surprise move to 50 basis points.
Analysis
November 12, 2026: Waller said he is leaning toward a 25-basis-point hike at the December meeting. That reinforces the market’s base case and matches the recent inflation data, which still shows core CPI at 0.3% monthly for three straight months.
The question is mainly whether the Fed goes 25 or 50 basis points, not whether it tightens at all. Pricing already heavily favors 25bps, so the remaining risk to Yes is a surprise shift toward a larger hike after the November jobs report or additional hawkish comments.
Arguments
For
- Waller and Logan both signaled continued tightening.
- Market pricing already assigns 25bps the clear plurality.
Against
- Officials are debating pace, so 50bps remains possible.
- The November jobs report could still shift the decision.
Key drivers
- Recent Fed commentary points directly to 25 basis points.
- Inflation data supports tightening without forcing a larger move.
Risk factors
- A 50-basis-point hike would fail this market.
- New data or speeches could raise urgency before December 9.
Scenarios
Best case
If incoming data stay roughly in line and Fed rhetoric remains hawkish, Yes rises to about 92%.
Most likely
Most likely the Fed hikes 25bps on December 9, with Yes around 88%.
Worst case
If the November jobs report or speeches push the Committee toward 50bps, Yes falls to about 55%.
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