Daily Edges
Today's edges
Nov 3, 2026 · AI vs market across Kalshi and Polymarket, one ranked list.
Refreshing: showing the latest batch53 of 53 edges shown
- ElectionsKalshi1y
Texas Senate winner?
AI60%MKT73%Edge-13OvervaluedLeaning No: the latest public evidence points to a genuine toss-up, not a 68% Democratic win. Talarico still has a small edge, but the market looks too optimistic.
- ElectionsKalshi3mo
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
AI63%MKT71%Edge-8OvervaluedLeaning No: Democrats look very likely to win the House, but the Senate is still too close to treat a sweep as likely. The market’s 69% Yes price looks a bit high versus the latest combined sweep estimate near 60%.
- ElectionsKalshi3mo
Who will control the Senate?
AI67%MKT73%Edge-6OvervaluedLeaning No: the market still favors Democrats, but the map requires four pickups against a 53-47 Republican edge. November 3 results in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas will decide whether that hurdle is cleared.
- electionsPolymarketToday
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
AI80%MKT77%Edge+3Priced InLeaning Yes: Democrats still have the clearest path, with final polling on November 2 showing them ahead in five Republican-held races and models around 80% for Senate control.
- electionsPolymarketToday
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
AI94%MKT95%Edge-1Priced InSlight lean to No: Democrats still look very likely to control the House, with final pre-election ratings and polling pointing their way. The biggest reason is the sustained 8-point generic-ballot edge on November 2, plus a map with many more vulnerable Republican seats.
- electionsPolymarketToday
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
AI77%MKT77%Edge0Priced InLeaning Yes: the freshest polling on November 2 shows Democrats ahead in most key Senate races and still favored in the House. The main driver is that the close Senate map plus a broad House lead makes a Democratic sweep more likely than the current price implies.
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- ElectionsKalshi#4
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
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Pro - sportsPolymarket#4
CD Tenerife vs. FC Andorra
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Pro - SportsKalshi#5
Jacksonville vs Baltimore
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Pro - economyPolymarket#5
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
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Pro - SportsKalshi#6
AFC West Division Winner
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#6
Next French Presidential Election
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Pro - CryptoKalshi#7
BTC price on Nov 6, 2026 at 5pm EST?
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Pro - sportsPolymarket#7
Manchester United FC vs. AS Roma
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#8
Blue wave in 2026?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#8
Texas Governor Election Winner
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Pro - ElectionsKalshi#9
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
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Pro - cryptoPolymarket#9
What price will XRP hit in 2026?
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Pro - CryptoKalshi#10
How high will BTC get in November?
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Pro - economyPolymarket#10
Largest Company end of December 2026?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#11
Trump's RCP approval average on Nov 2, 2026?
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Pro - pop culturePolymarket#11
#2 Spotify Song 2026
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Pro - ElectionsKalshi#12
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
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Pro - cryptoPolymarket#12
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
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Pro - ElectionsKalshi#13
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#13
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#14
Blue tsunami in 2026?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Pro - ElectionsKalshi#15
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
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Pro - sportsPolymarket#15
Galatasaray SK vs. VfB Stuttgart
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Pro - SportsKalshi#16
Chicago vs Seattle: Spread
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Pro - economyPolymarket#16
What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#17
Newcastle vs Everton
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#17
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
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Pro - CryptoKalshi#18
BTC price on Nov 2, 2026 at 5pm EST?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#18
Alaska Senate Election Winner
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Pro - SportsKalshi#19
Villarreal vs PSG
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#19
Iowa Senate Election Winner
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Pro - SportsKalshi#20
Jonathan Taylor Next Team
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#20
Kansas Senate Election Winner
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Pro - SportsKalshi#21
Manchester United vs Roma
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Pro - economyPolymarket#21
What will gas hit by end of November?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#22
New Zealand A vs India A
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Pro - economyPolymarket#22
Bank of England Decision in March?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#23
AFC Championship Winner
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Pro - economyPolymarket#23
What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#24
NFC Championship Winner
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Pro - SportsKalshi#25
Chicago vs Seattle
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Pro - SportsKalshi#26
Heisman Trophy Winner
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Pro - SportsKalshi#27
College Football National Championship Winner
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Pro - SportsKalshi#28
Chicago vs Seattle: Touchdowns
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Pro - SportsKalshi#29
Pro Football Championship Game Matchup
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Pro - SportsKalshi#30
BYU vs Utah
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