Where will it rain on Nov 12, 2026?
Leaning Yes: the freshest forecasts point to measurable rain in Chicago today, above the 56% market price. Final resolution still depends on CLIORD's recorded total, not just forecasted showers.
Analysis
The market still depends on the official Weather Company CLIORD total, and trace precipitation does not count. The main risk is that rain misses the station or remains unmeasured despite nearby showers.
Arguments
For
- Multiple same-day forecasts call for measurable rain in Chicago.
- Hourly forecast totals already add up to a nonzero amount.
Against
- The event settles on CLIORD, not the broader Chicago area.
- Light showers could produce only trace or zero recorded precipitation.
Key drivers
- Forecast rain totals are clearly above zero
- Settlement needs only any strictly positive CLIORD reading
Risk factors
- Station-specific totals can miss neighborhood rain
- Trace precipitation would still resolve No
Scenarios
Best case
If the evening rain band hits CLIORD (today), Yes rises to about 72%.
Most likely
Most likely CLIORD logs measurable rain, with Yes around 64%.
Worst case
If precipitation stays trace-only at CLIORD (today), Yes falls to about 15%.
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