How high will inflation get in 2026?
Leaning No: the latest October data show monthly inflation still running hot, but not hot enough to make a 4.5% 12-month CPI reading likely. The official release on November 10, 2026 could not even publish the October year-over-year rate because the needed October 2025 comparison is missing.
Analysis
The November 10, 2026 CPI release did not provide a usable October 2026 12-month headline rate, and the next standard reading comes with the November CPI report on December 10, 2026. October’s monthly gain was 0.4%, with core up 0.3%, which is firm but not the kind of pace that usually pushes annual CPI above 4.5% on its own.
Energy and food are still adding pressure, especially gasoline and food, but the broader pattern is mixed and the missing October 2025 base limits what can be concluded from October alone. For Yes to win, one of the remaining 2026 reports would need to show a clearly elevated 12-month headline reading above 4.5%, and that now looks unlikely.
Arguments
For
- October’s 0.4% all-items increase and 0.5% food rise show price pressure is still broad-based.
- Energy was a major contributor again, with gasoline up 1.0% in October after a 9.1% September jump.
- The market only needs one 2026 month above 4.5%, so a late-year spike would be enough.
Against
- Core CPI at 0.3% in October does not point to runaway inflation.
- The official release could not even establish a headline October 12-month rate, suggesting the needed comparison base is not yet showing a clear breach.
- With only November and December left, there is limited time for CPI to climb all the way above 4.5%.
Key drivers
- October 2026 CPI rose 0.4% month over month, but that pace is more consistent with elevated inflation than with a late-2026 surge above 4.5%.
- The next decisive official reading is the November 2026 CPI report on December 10, 2026, leaving only one more normal monthly data point before year-end.
Risk factors
- Gasoline already showed a 37.4% 12-month increase through October, so another energy jump could still lift the annual headline sharply.
- If the November or December CPI reports come in stronger than expected, the year-over-year figure could briefly cross 4.5% even late in 2026.
Scenarios
Best case
If the December 10, 2026 CPI report shows a surprise jump in the 12-month headline above 4.5%, Yes rises to about 18%.
Most likely
Most likely, the remaining 2026 CPI reports stay below 4.5%, with Yes ending around 5%.
Worst case
If the November 2026 CPI report on December 10 and the December 2026 report both come in near the recent 0.3% to 0.4% monthly pace, Yes falls to about 2%.
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