Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Leaning No: the latest traffic estimates are still far below the 60-call threshold, with November 10 reports putting activity around 20% of prewar levels and only about 46 transits per day in the most recent UKMTO window.
Analysis
November 10, 2026 reporting still shows Hormuz traffic well below the 60-call 7-day average needed for Yes. The freshest figures put observed transits around 46 per day in the latest UKMTO window, while other trackers and reporting point to much lower effective daily usage and continued avoidance by many operators.
There is some recovery in LNG and selected tanker flows, but it is not close to enough yet. With the market needing a sustained 7-day average at or above 60 before December 31, the burden is on a broad, durable jump in traffic, and the current security picture still looks too disrupted for that.
Arguments
For
- Some categories are recovering, especially LNG, which could gradually push the moving average higher before year-end.
- A few reports say certain Gulf traffic patterns are stabilizing, suggesting the bottom may already be in place.
- The calendar still leaves time for a sharp rebound if shipping conditions improve quickly.
Against
- The newest traffic estimates are still well under 60 per day, leaving a large gap to the resolution threshold.
- Operators are still avoiding the route in large numbers, so the recovery is not broad-based enough yet.
- The security environment remains hostile, making a sustained 7-day return to normal levels unlikely soon.
Key drivers
- Recent reported traffic is still materially below the 60-call threshold, with November 10 figures describing roughly 20% of prewar volume.
- Security concerns remain unresolved, with ongoing attacks and warnings that the strait cannot yet be considered safe.
Risk factors
- LNG and some tanker movements have improved, which could lift the 7-day average faster than the broad traffic data suggest.
- The market resolves on IMF PortWatch data, and if that series counts more vessel calls than the headline reports imply, the threshold could be reached sooner.
Scenarios
Best case
If IMF PortWatch shows a sustained surge back to pre-conflict transit levels by late December 2026, Yes rises to about 28%.
Most likely
Most likely traffic improves only gradually and stays below the 60-call mark through year-end, with Yes around 4%.
Worst case
If attacks and avoidance continue through December 2026 with IMF PortWatch staying below 60 on the 7-day average, Yes falls to about 1%.
More from this day
- techPolymarket48d
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by...?
AI11%MKT78%Edge-67HypedLeaning No: the newest official statements on November 10 and November 11 still say Huang remains CEO, and the board said it has confidence in him. With only about seven weeks left, a qualifying departure announcement looks less likely than the 15.5% price implies.
- pop culturePolymarket2d
"How to Rob a Bank" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
AI46%MKT15%Edge+31Hidden GemLeaning Yes: the current Tomatometer is already 56% from 16 critics, which is 11 points above the 45% cutoff. Even with a few weaker reviews before November 16, it has a decent buffer.
- pop culturePolymarket2y
Next CEO of NVIDIA?
AI2%MKT27%Edge-25HypedSlight lean to No: the market is only 4%, and the key fact is that NVIDIA has not announced Colette Kress as Jensen Huang’s successor as of November 11, 2026. The current reporting treats her as a possible interim or continuity choice, which would not satisfy the rule.