Edges for Nov 11, 2026

Leaning Yes: the House vote looks close but likely to pass, with Democrats, Massie, and at least some Republicans appearing enough for a simple majority. The key date is November 11, 2026, when the privileged resolution is expected to be forced to the floor.

No edge, the market looks right: the price already implies this is very unlikely, and there is no fresh tracker data showing Musk is anywhere near under 40 posts in the Nov. 9–11 window.

Leaning Yes: Jay-Z is the confirmed halftime headliner, and “Empire State of Mind” is a plausible high-profile catalog pick even though no set list or guest confirmation has been announced.

Leaning Yes: the latest Bitcoin prints are only a few percent above $72,000, and the hotter-than-expected October CPI plus ongoing ETF outflows make a dip below the threshold plausible by noon ET on November 11.

Leaning No: the biggest new development is the November 10 impeachment push, but Trump said he would stand by Hegseth and Senate removal looks hard with Republicans holding 53 seats.

Leaning Yes: NVIDIA is still close enough to retake the lead, and its November 17 earnings update could be the catalyst. The latest rankings show Apple ahead, but the gap has recently swung enough that a small move can change first place.

No edge: the market already prices the draw highly, and the live score still supports it. Pakistan’s 339/5 keeps the draw in front, but enough time remains for a result.

Leaning No: the latest official AAA reading is still above $3.80, but the drop is fast and the threshold is close. The market’s 94% Yes price looks too high given the recent weekly pace.

Slight lean to Yes: Claude Fable 5.2 already launched on November 9, 2026, and Anthropic is claiming strong performance gains, so the remaining hurdle is just whether its Arena score clears 1500.

Leaning No: the market needs Democrats to win both outstanding races, and Alaska is still unresolved. Mississippi looks favorable, but exact 56 requires two separate wins, not one.

Leaning Yes: the sequence is already two-thirds complete, and the fresh November 6 labor data plus a 4.1% year-end median rate point toward a December hike.

Leaning No: the most recent reporting on November 10 says Hegseth is still in office, and even a House impeachment vote would not remove him without a Senate conviction that looks very unlikely with Republicans holding 53 seats.

Slight lean to Yes: Fable 5.2 launched on November 9, 2026 and has strong early benchmark claims, but there is still no direct evidence it hit rank 1 on the required Arena.AI Text Arena leaderboard.

Leaning No: Bitcoin still sits above the $70,000 line, but recent selloff, ETF outflows, and hotter inflation pressure the final average. The market’s 89% Yes price looks a bit high versus the current downside risks.

Leaning No: the freshest forecasts point to dry conditions on Nov. 11, while the market still prices rain at 77%. The key uncertainty is whether CLICLL gets any measurable drizzle or showers.

The market prices Yes at 79%. The evidence here supports only a limited adjustment, to 74%.

Slight lean to No: the Fed’s December hike odds are still very high, and on November 10 Christopher Waller said he would support a 25-basis-point hike even if October inflation improved. The main swing factor is still the December 8-9 meeting, which is the first qualifying decision after the excluded September meeting.

Leaning No: as of November 10, 2026, there is still no evidence of an actually transferable and tradable Predict.fun governance token, and the market still needs a concrete launch by November 30.

Leaning No: the match was officially postponed on November 10, so there will not be a Benfica win on November 11 unless the market’s rules treat the rescheduled fixture as still counting for that date. The single biggest fact is UEFA’s postponement notice, which removes the scheduled result from the calendar.

Leaning No: recent prices sit below the trigger, and the latest move has been weak. The market’s 31% Yes price looks a bit high unless Bitcoin recovers above $74,250 before the window.

Leaning No: the film still has no displayed Tomatometer score as of November 10, and the only early review mentioned is mixed despite calling it entertaining. That makes 45+ likely, but a bit less certain than the 66.5% market price suggests.

Leaning No: Netanyahu does not currently have the presidential mandate, and his bloc is still at 53 seats, eight short of a majority. The clearest fresh signal is Isaac Herzog giving Gadi Eisenkot the first chance to form the government on November 8, 2026.

Leaning No: the newest official statements on November 10 and November 11 still say Huang remains CEO, and the board said it has confidence in him. With only about seven weeks left, a qualifying departure announcement looks less likely than the 15.5% price implies.

Leaning No: the reported U.S. strike on Qeshm Island on November 6 resets the clock, and that leaves no way to complete a full 14-day pause by November 8.

Slight lean to No: KMT still has the best path through Taipei and several northern/central races, and the latest polls do not show the DPP clearly dominating statewide. The key swing is whether KMT can hold Taipei and enough other counties to stay ahead in the 22-race total.

Leaning Yes: the spread has already moved well past 4.5, driven by Las Vegas's quarterback change. Seattle still has injury concerns, but the market setup favors a margin above the threshold more often than not.

Leaning No: the match was officially postponed from November 11 to November 12, so Torreense cannot win on the market’s specified date. The key date is November 11, 2026, when the fixture was listed as void.

Leaning Yes: Georgia is the top-ranked team and has a favorable playoff path, but still faces SEC and CFP elimination games. That makes 30% look a bit low, not dramatically wrong.

Leaning No: Smith still has elite numbers, but the team context is now working against him. The market’s 26% looks a bit high given Ohio State’s losses and the quarterback uncertainty.

Leaning No: ETH is still around $2,090–$2,140 on November 10, 2026, and it has to rally roughly 40% to clear $3,000 before year-end. The recent ETF outflows and break below $2,200 make that path look harder than the market price implies.

Slight lean to Yes: Gemini currently leads several broad leaderboards, but Claude is stronger on coding and some composites. The 62.9% market price is close; I’d keep only a modest Yes tilt.

Leaning No: the latest November 10 traffic readings are still far below the 60-call threshold, with UKMTO showing 325 transits over Oct. 29–Nov. 4 and other monitors near 20% of normal.

Leaning Yes: the market already heavily favors a 25-basis-point December hike, and fresh polling plus Fed commentary reinforce that. The main risk is a surprise 50-basis-point move, not no hike.

Slight lean to No: the market already gives Dune: Part Three a small chance, but it is still unreleased and trails The Odyssey, so it needs a big December breakout just to become a serious Best Picture threat.

Leaning Yes: McIlroy enters healthy, in strong recent form, and as the market favorite. The 22% price seems a bit low for the top-ranked contender, though Rahm and other contenders still make this a longshot.

Leaning No: the latest Qatar-mediated push and talk of “positive momentum” make another qualifying senior meeting more likely than the 62% no-meeting price implies, even though nothing is scheduled yet.

Leaning Yes: FURIA is priced like a long shot, but its direct Stage 3 entry and recent results make it more live than the 7% market price suggests. The key positives are the June IEM Cologne runner-up finish and no reported roster problem on November 9.

Leaning No: the market is still pricing in a lot of risk before the November 16, 2026 nominee announcement. Langley has strong momentum, but she is not officially nominated yet and Best New Artist is a crowded, uncertain field.

Leaning No: the market has Jay-Z confirmed for February 14, 2027, but there is still no setlist or guest confirmation pointing to “Empire State of Mind” as the closer.

Slight lean to No: the market is still well above the $66,000 trigger, but Bitcoin has been in a clear downtrend with five straight weekly declines and heavy ETF outflows, so the upside cushion is thinner than the 95.8% price suggests.

Leaning No: the Bank of Russia kept the key rate at 14.00% on November 5, 2026 and signaled a slower easing path, with Governor Nabiullina saying cuts should not be rushed.

Slight lean to Yes: BTC is already near the target band, but fresh inflation and ETF outflows argue for modestly lower odds than a neutral reading. Compared with the 19.6% market price, I’m only slightly higher because the current level sits close to the range.

Leaning Yes: San Francisco’s record and recent defensive reinforcements justify a small move above market. Chicago remains the biggest threat, but San Francisco still looks like the clearest NFC front-runner.

Leaning No: the latest reports still show Hegseth in office with public Trump and Pentagon support. That keeps Yes below the 12% market price, around 9%.

No edge: Chicago remains the market leader, but there is no fresh lineup, injury, or standings update. With no new information, the Yes probability stays near the current 39%.

Leaning No: the latest reporting shows Mamdani remains visible, but there is still no sign TIME has chosen him. That leaves the 25% Yes price a bit high.

Leaning No: the market sits at 44%, but the latest projection and Seattle’s defensive profile favor the under. Las Vegas’ weak defense keeps Yes live, yet current evidence edges below the threshold.

Leaning Yes: Miami’s starting quarterback is out, and Indianapolis is already favored. The 65% market price is reasonable, but the latest injury news nudges Indy a bit higher.

Leaning Yes: quarterback uncertainty and a model projecting 23–17 push slightly toward Green Bay. The market at 48% already captures much of that, so the edge is small.

Leaning No: the market is near a coin flip, but quarterback and backfield uncertainty plus low recent scoring slightly favor the under. The current 51% Yes price looks a bit rich versus those fresh injury and form signals.

Slight lean to No: France still looks stronger overall, but the 57% market price already reflects that edge. Italy’s home venue, the recent 1-1 draw, and multiple France injuries make a France win less certain than the market implies.

Leaning Yes: the current spread already clears the 1.5-point threshold by two points, and Miami’s quarterback downgrade helps. Indianapolis’s poor record keeps some upset risk.

Slight lean to No: the latest reports show Hegseth still serving, with impeachment blocked and White House support visible. That pushes below the 6% Yes price.

Slight lean to Yes: the bout is still on, and Gane remains the betting favorite despite some underdog support. That leaves Yes a little above the 63% market price.

Slight lean to No: the latest official statement confirms uninterrupted leadership, while the investigation and resignation calls have not produced a departure announcement. That keeps Yes below the 18% market price.

Slight lean to No: the only active impeachment push was procedurally sidelined on November 10, 2026. A formal House impeachment before January 1 now looks unlikely, slightly below the market price.

Slight lean to Yes: Minnesota’s QB uncertainty and Wentz’s poor recent start favor Green Bay, though the market already prices that in. The Packers remain a modest home favorite, with only a small edge over the 62% price.

Slight lean to No: Seattle has the better current setup, but 73% already reflects that and leaves little margin. The biggest swing factor is whether Seattle's questionable defenders and Lock's health hold up.

Slight lean to Yes: Gen.G has the stronger recent knockout form and higher seed, but the 63% market price is already close. The edge is modest because BLG also arrives in excellent form after beating T1.