US gas prices this week
Leaning Yes: the latest AAA reading is still well above $3.80, and only four days remain. The recent decline is real, but the market’s 44% Yes price looks a bit low versus the remaining cushion.
Analysis
The latest AAA reading was $3.9788 on November 10, 2026, still 17.88 cents above the cutoff. That gives Yes a real buffer, even though the national average has been falling quickly over the last week.
The main question is whether the decline continues enough to erase that cushion by November 16. Recent oil weakness and winter-blend fuel effects point lower, but only four days remain, so a move all the way below $3.80 is possible but not the base case.
Arguments
For
- The latest official AAA figure is comfortably above the cutoff.
- Only a modest additional decline would be needed to lose the cushion.
Against
- The price trend is clearly downward across the last week.
- Oil and gasoline market conditions still favor lower retail prices.
Key drivers
- Latest AAA reading is still above $3.80.
- Recent weekly decline could continue into November 16.
Risk factors
- A few more days of falling gasoline prices could break the threshold.
- Secondary reports already show the average near $3.94, indicating momentum lower.
Scenarios
Best case
If AAA stays near or above $3.90 through November 16, Yes rises to about 65%.
Most likely
Most likely the national average remains above $3.80 on November 16, with Yes around 52%.
Worst case
If AAA falls below $3.80 before November 16, Yes falls to about 15%.
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