Edges for Nov 13, 2026

No edge: Bitcoin is still well above the $70,000 line, but ETF outflows and weak technicals raise downside risk. That supports a probability just below the market's 82%.

No edge, the market looks right: Bitcoin is still around $71K to $74K, so it would need another sharp drop to get below $68,000 by November 13 noon ET.

Leaning No: the board is still only considering an ouster as of November 12, 2026, and Nvidia’s $4 trillion-plus valuation has already slipped close enough to the line that a year-end close above it is far from secure.

No edge, the market looks right: Bitcoin was still around $73,000–$73,700 on November 12, which leaves a wide buffer above $66,000 even after the recent selloff.

Slight lean to No: Bitcoin is still above $73,000 on November 12, but the latest macro backdrop and ETF outflows make it somewhat more likely to slip than the 98.45% market price suggests.

Slight lean to Yes: the film opens Friday, November 13, with mixed reviews and no sign of strong presales or a wide breakout, so a sub-$7 million start still looks most likely.

Leaning Yes: Kristersson now has the clearest path after the opposition’s bids were rejected on November 3 and November 10, and the Sweden Democrats signaled they can tolerate his government without cabinet posts.

Leaning No: the latest polling and seat projections still favor a PP-led change after the November 29, 2026 election. Several recent surveys put PP ahead and show Feijóo with a much clearer path to a confidence vote than Sánchez.

Leaning Yes: the SEC filing and roadshow are direct confirmation before the cutoff. The market’s 6% price looks far below the explicit rule-triggering evidence.

Leaning No: the market is already pricing in a very low chance, and there is still no official Rockstar tracklist or album credit showing XXXTentacion.

No edge, the market looks right: Bitcoin was still around $73,607 on November 12, which leaves a large cushion above $64,000 with only six days left.

Leaning Yes: Trace Crowe’s opening 62 gave him the solo lead, which lifts his win chance above the 17% market price. But the event is still early, and several chasers remain close.

Slight lean to No: the latest public evidence still shows no divorce filing or definitive divorce announcement as of November 12, 2026. Jensen’s November 8 apology for infidelity raises family strain, but it does not meet the market’s Yes standard.

Slight lean to Yes: Hernández de Cos still looks like the front-runner, and France’s reported support on November 12 could be enough to build the reinforced majority needed for the European Council vote.

Leaning No: NVIDIA has slipped to roughly $4.0–$4.3T while Microsoft is still close at about $3.9T, so a small further move could leave NVIDIA in third by year-end.

Leaning No: the market is very high, but the December 8–9 decision is still not locked in, and the October pause plus Bostic’s call for more information leave a real path to a pause or other outcome.

Leaning Yes: NVIDIA is already reported around third place on November 13, and the main rivals, Microsoft and Alphabet, are only tens of billions apart, so a single earnings reaction could keep it there through December 31.

Leaning Yes: Le Pen’s polling lead is real and durable, with the latest November 2026 polls showing her around 30% to 36% first-round support and beating every tested runoff opponent. The main reason not to go higher is the still-open eligibility fight before the March 26, 2027 candidate list.

Leaning No: the latest IMF PortWatch point is only 3 transits on November 8, far below the 60 moving-average threshold and even below the already depressed recent traffic. The security situation and vessel backlogs still point to a prolonged slowdown rather than a quick normalization.

Leaning No: Google is still second on the latest November 13 snapshot, and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.2 just extended the lead to 93.90 versus Gemini 4 Carbon at 89.19.

Leaning No: the market already prices a low under-40 chance, and Musk has at least two qualifying main-feed posts on November 12 with no verified tracker total yet showing he stayed below 40.

No edge, the market looks right: Alibaba is a real contender, but with no fresh leaderboard evidence the 37% price already captures the uncertainty around who tops the November 30 check.

Leaning Yes: Bitcoin was around $69,000 on November 13, and the recent liquidation-driven selloff makes a drop to under $66,000 by the November 14 noon ET close more plausible than the market price implies.

Leaning No: the latest official reading is 6.7% for October, and unemployment has risen in both September and October, so getting back to 6.4% by the November release looks unlikely.