Turkiye vs Belgium
Leaning Yes: Belgium remains the strongest side by group record and prior meeting, though Lukaku’s absence trims upside. The market’s 54% is reasonable, but the evidence nudges slightly higher.
Analysis
November 12, 2026: the match is still scheduled and not started, so no result has affected the market yet. Belgium’s edge comes from the prior 3-0 win and stronger group position, but Lukaku’s hip problem is a real negative for their scoring outlook.
The market already favors Belgium, and that fits the broader picture. Doku’s return helps, Türkiye’s defensive numbers look shaky, and the draw remains a meaningful threat, so the edge is modest rather than strong.
Arguments
For
- Belgium has the better group record and prior head-to-head result.
- Market and previews still rate Belgium as the likelier winner.
Against
- Lukaku’s hip issue reduces Belgium’s attacking ceiling.
- Türkiye at home keeps the draw and upset very live.
Key drivers
- Belgium’s prior 3-0 win over Türkiye
- Lukaku’s availability and Belgium’s finishing
Risk factors
- A draw is still a live outcome in a balanced road match
- Türkiye could benefit if Belgium’s attack stalls without Lukaku
Scenarios
Best case
If Belgium confirms a strong attacking lineup, Yes rises to about 62%.
Most likely
Most likely Belgium stays the favorite but not by much, with Yes around 57%.
Worst case
If Lukaku is fully out and Türkiye scores first, Yes falls to about 47%.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 57% | 54% |
| Turkiye | 22% | 23% |
| Tie | 21% | 23% |
More from this day
- techPolymarket47d
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by...?
AI11%MKT78%Edge-67HypedLeaning No: the newest official statements on November 10 and November 11 still say Huang remains CEO, and the board said it has confidence in him. With only about seven weeks left, a qualifying departure announcement looks less likely than the 15.5% price implies.
- pop culturePolymarket2d
"How to Rob a Bank" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
AI46%MKT15%Edge+31Hidden GemLeaning Yes: the current Tomatometer is already 56% from 16 critics, which is 11 points above the 45% cutoff. Even with a few weaker reviews before November 16, it has a decent buffer.
- pop culturePolymarket2y
Next CEO of NVIDIA?
AI2%MKT27%Edge-25HypedSlight lean to No: the market is only 4%, and the key fact is that NVIDIA has not announced Colette Kress as Jensen Huang’s successor as of November 11, 2026. The current reporting treats her as a possible interim or continuity choice, which would not satisfy the rule.