Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Leaning No: the latest polling and seat projections still favor a PP-led change after the November 29, 2026 election. Several recent surveys put PP ahead and show Feijóo with a much clearer path to a confidence vote than Sánchez.
Analysis
November 12, 2026: Spain is heading into a snap election on November 29, and the post-election Congress must still give a candidate its confidence before any new prime minister is sworn in. Recent polling mostly points to PP ahead, with PP-Vox often projected close to or above a governing majority, which makes Sánchez’s continuation difficult.
Sánchez is not out yet, since one recent poll still had PSOE narrowly ahead and some surveys show no easy majority for either bloc. But the balance of fresh evidence says the most likely outcome is a right-leaning government formation process, not Sánchez retaining the premiership through a new confidence vote.
Arguments
For
- PP-led projections are strong enough that Sánchez looks more likely than not to be replaced after the election.
- Seat estimates in multiple polls suggest PP plus Vox may be able to assemble the support needed for a confidence vote.
- Recent defeats of Sánchez-backed housing decrees underline how fragile his governing coalition has become.
Against
- A single outlier poll still shows PSOE slightly ahead, so the race is not settled.
- If PP falls short of a workable majority, coalition bargaining could preserve Sánchez or delay any replacement.
Key drivers
- Several November 2026 polls show PP ahead and Feijóo more likely than Sánchez to become prime minister.
- The November 29 election and December 23 opening of the new Congress create a near-term path for a new governing majority to form.
Risk factors
- A fragmented Congress could still block any candidate from reaching a confidence vote, leaving Sánchez in place longer than polls imply.
- One recent survey had PSOE narrowly ahead, so late campaign movement could still improve Sánchez's odds.
Scenarios
Best case
If PP and Vox translate their polling lead into a clear majority after the November 29 election and Feijóo wins the confidence vote by December 23, Yes rises to about 3%.
Most likely
Most likely the election produces a PP-led government path and Sánchez is replaced, with Yes ending around 8%.
Worst case
If PSOE outperforms polls and Sánchez secures enough support in the new Congress by the end of December 2026, Yes rises to about 18%.
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