How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Slight lean to Yes: the race is already at the threshold, and Alaska’s current count favors Democrats. Compared with the 95% market price, the evidence supports a slightly higher Yes probability.
Analysis
November 12, 2026: Republicans are listed at 44 seats, and Alaska is the only unresolved Senate race. Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by roughly 4,250 votes with about 84% counted.
That makes the market hinge almost entirely on Alaska. Sullivan can still reach 45 seats for Republicans, but the current count and the rest of the called races favor the under-45 outcome.
Arguments
For
- The current lineup already meets the below-45 condition.
- Alaska’s reported count currently favors the Democrat.
Against
- A Sullivan win in Alaska would lift Republicans to 45.
- Only one race remains, so a single reversal changes the result.
Key drivers
- Current called seat count is already 44 for Republicans.
- Alaska alone can still change the outcome to 45.
Risk factors
- Late Alaska ballots could tighten or reverse Peltola’s lead.
- Ranked-choice or counting updates could still move the seat total.
Scenarios
Best case
If Alaska finalizes for Peltola on November 13, Yes rises to about 99%.
Most likely
Most likely Alaska holds for Peltola, with Yes around 97%.
Worst case
If Sullivan wins Alaska on November 18, Yes falls to about 5%.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Below 45 | 97% | 95% |
| 45 | 2% | 2% |
| 46 | 1% | 1% |
| 47 | 1% | 1% |
| 48 | 1% | 1% |
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