Oddia: AI edges and markets across Kalshi and Polymarket
Oddia runs independent AI probability estimates across Kalshi and Polymarket and surfaces the gaps worth your attention, daily.
FeaturedPolymarketSenate
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
78%Yes$18.3M volEnds Nov 4, 2026
FeaturedPolymarketParent For Derivative
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
95%Yes$42.8M volEnds Nov 4, 2026
FeaturedPolymarketMichigan Midterm
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
81%Yes$8.7M volEnds Nov 4, 2026
FeaturedPolymarketKansas Midterm
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
62%Yes$2.4M volEnds Nov 4, 2026
FeaturedPolymarketTexas Senate
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
75%Yes$13.2M volEnds Nov 4, 2026
Daily edges · Nov 3, 2026
refreshingWhere the AI disagrees today
ElectionsKalshi
1yTexas Senate winner?
AI60%
MKT73%
Edge-13Overvalued
Leaning No: the latest public evidence points to a genuine toss-up, not a 68% Democratic win. Talarico still has a small edge, but the market looks too optimistic.
ElectionsKalshi
3mo2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
AI63%
MKT71%
Edge-8Overvalued
Leaning No: Democrats look very likely to win the House, but the Senate is still too close to treat a sweep as likely. The market’s 69% Yes price looks a bit high versus the latest combined sweep estimate near 60%.
ElectionsKalshi
3moWho will control the Senate?
AI67%
MKT73%
Edge-6Overvalued
Leaning No: the market still favors Democrats, but the map requires four pickups against a 53-47 Republican edge. November 3 results in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas will decide whether that hurdle is cleared.
6 edges published today across both venues.
Trending now
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
Polymarket$61.4M vol
36%Yes
Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?
Kalshi$437.6K vol
94%Yes
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Polymarket$60.8M vol
77%Yes
Will President of France be the first to leave office?
Kalshi$30.8K vol
77%Yes
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Kalshi$140.8K vol
46%Yes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Polymarket$37.6M vol
75%Yes
Ending soon
ZCash Up or Down - November 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Polymarket- vol
50%Yes
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved before 2027?
Kalshi$5.6K vol
9%Yes
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Polymarket$4 vol
49%Yes
Will all remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved before 2028?
Kalshi$437 vol
10%Yes
XRP Up or Down - November 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Polymarket- vol
49%Yes
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Kalshi$50.4K vol
33%Yes