US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Leaning No: the reported U.S. strike on Qeshm Island on November 6 resets the clock, and that leaves no way to complete a full 14-day pause by November 8.
Analysis
The freshest decisive fact is the November 6, 2026 U.S. strike on an Iranian air-defense system on Qeshm Island. Under the rules, that is a qualifying military action and starts a new 14-day window the next day, far too late for a completed period by November 8.
Later statements that the war was effectively over do not matter unless no further qualifying strike occurred for 14 straight days. With the deadline already past on November 8, the market’s Yes case is essentially blocked by the timing of the November 6 action.
Arguments
For
- The news summary says U.S. forces struck an Iranian air-defense system on November 6, which fits the event definition closely.
- The market deadline is November 8, so even a clean pause after November 6 would still be too short to qualify.
- Subsequent comments about de-escalation do not undo the reset caused by a qualifying strike.
Against
- If the Qeshm incident is not accepted as a qualifying air strike, the market could still be live for Yes.
- Any ambiguity over exact Iran Standard Time dating or source consensus could affect whether the clock started on November 6 or later.
Key drivers
- The November 6 U.S. strike on Qeshm Island is directly qualifying under the market rules.
- A 14-day uninterrupted period cannot finish by November 8 if day 1 starts on November 7.
Risk factors
- If the November 6 incident were somehow ruled non-qualifying, the Yes chance would rise sharply.
- If the reported date or attribution of the strike were contradicted by the final resolution sources, the timing logic changes.
Scenarios
Best case
If the November 6 Qeshm strike is rejected as non-qualifying and no other qualifying U.S. strike is found before November 8, Yes rises to about 45%.
Most likely
Most likely the November 6 strike is upheld as qualifying, and Yes ends around 5% or lower by resolution.
Worst case
If the November 6 strike is confirmed as qualifying in the final sources, Yes falls to about 2%.
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