Fed decision in Dec 2026?
Leaning Yes: the market already heavily favors a 25-basis-point December hike, and fresh polling plus Fed commentary reinforce that. The main risk is a surprise 50-basis-point move, not no hike.
Analysis
November 10 Reuters polling and FedWatch both point strongly to a 25-basis-point December hike. The market is already close to that view, so only a surprise 50-basis-point move looks like a meaningful threat to Yes.
Recent inflation, payroll, and manufacturing data all support further tightening. Waller’s comments also leaned toward 25 bps unless inflation remains stubbornly hot, which keeps Yes favored but not certain.
Arguments
For
- Reuters polled 101 economists, all expecting 25 bps.
- FedWatch assigns roughly 90% to a 25-basis-point move.
Against
- The main alternative is a 50-basis-point hike, not no action.
- Officials like Logan and Waller left the door open to larger tightening.
Key drivers
- Economists and futures markets both expect 25 bps
- Fresh inflation and labor data support another hike
Risk factors
- A hot inflation reading could push the Fed to 50 bps
- Unexpected deterioration in growth or employment could soften tightening
Scenarios
Best case
If upcoming inflation cools further this week, Yes rises to about 94%.
Most likely
Most likely the Fed hikes 25 bps on December 9, with Yes around 89%.
Worst case
If inflation remains hot at the December meeting, Yes falls to about 65%.
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