Miami vs Indianapolis
Leaning Yes: Miami’s starting quarterback is out, and Indianapolis is already favored. The 65% market price is reasonable, but the latest injury news nudges Indy a bit higher.
Analysis
November 10, 2026: Miami put starting quarterback Malik Willis on injured reserve, and Zach Sieler also went on IR. That strengthens Indianapolis’ win case more than the current 65% market price suggests.
Indianapolis is already a small favorite at home, and outside projections also lean Colts. Miami’s injuries matter more than Indianapolis’ absences, but late lineup news could still narrow the gap.
Arguments
For
- Miami lost Malik Willis, its starting quarterback, before the game.
- Indianapolis is favored by the spread and moneyline.
Against
- The market already heavily favors Indianapolis at 65%.
- The Colts have several injury concerns of their own.
Key drivers
- Miami’s starting quarterback is out for at least four weeks.
- Indianapolis is already priced as the favorite.
Risk factors
- Indianapolis has multiple questionable or out players.
- Miami could outperform with backup quarterback play.
Scenarios
Best case
If Miami’s backup quarterback struggles early on November 15, Yes rises to about 74%.
Most likely
Most likely Indianapolis wins a tight home game, with Yes around 68%.
Worst case
If Indianapolis loses key starters in final reports, Yes falls to about 60%.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis | 68% | 65% |
| Miami | 32% | 36% |
More from this day
- politicsPolymarket48d
Pete Hegseth impeached by...?
AI85%MKT3%Edge+82Hidden GemLeaning Yes: the House vote looks close but likely to pass, with Democrats, Massie, and at least some Republicans appearing enough for a simple majority. The key date is November 11, 2026, when the privileged resolution is expected to be forced to the floor.
- politicsPolymarketEnded
Elon Musk # tweets November 9 - November 11, 2026?
AI4%MKT46%Edge-42HypedNo edge, the market looks right: the price already implies this is very unlikely, and there is no fresh tracker data showing Musk is anywhere near under 40 posts in the Nov. 9–11 window.
- pop culturePolymarket3mo
What songs will be played at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
AI45%MKT73%Edge-28HypedLeaning Yes: Jay-Z is the confirmed halftime headliner, and “Empire State of Mind” is a plausible high-profile catalog pick even though no set list or guest confirmation has been announced.