Edges for Nov 10, 2026

Slight lean to No: the SNB’s policy rate is already 0.00%, and the latest October CPI rose to 1.5% year over year, which makes a 50+ bp cut by June 2027 look very unlikely.

Leaning Yes: the market is probably a bit too low given the Nov. 9 impeachment push and the possibility Trump acts on the private replacement chatter. The main reason is that Hegseth faces real near-term pressure, even though he still has Trump’s public backing.

Leaning Yes: Olivia Rodrigo looks like an early frontrunner, with strong commercial numbers and fresh industry chatter pointing to a serious Album of the Year run. The most important near-term test is the November 16, 2026 nomination list, where this album is widely expected to appear.

Leaning No: the market needs Democrats to win both outstanding races, and Alaska is still unresolved. Mississippi looks favorable, but exact 56 requires two separate wins, not one.

Leaning Yes: Taylor remains with Indianapolis right now, and the market’s main risk is a deadline trade. The 36% Yes price looks a bit low given no deal is imminent, but trade interest is real.

Leaning No: recent coverage shows Mamdani’s prominence, but no TIME announcement or shortlist. That leaves the 22% Yes price a bit high.

No edge, the market looks right: the market is already pricing in that the November 6 strike broke any 14-day run, and the November 8 cutoff leaves too little time for a full uninterrupted period.

Leaning No: the latest official AAA reading is still above $3.80, but the drop is fast and the threshold is close. The market’s 94% Yes price looks too high given the recent weekly pace.

Leaning No: Netanyahu is still only caretaker PM, and on November 8 President Herzog gave Gadi Eisenkot the first mandate to form a government. That makes Netanyahu’s path harder right now, even though it is not closed off.

Leaning No: Bitcoin is still above $70,000, but the cushion is only about $4,000 and near-term macro catalysts look negative. The market price at 91% seems a bit high given the recent selloff and heavy liquidations.

Leaning Yes: NVIDIA is still second by market cap on November 9, and it only needs to stay ahead of Microsoft to resolve yes. The main test is the November 17 earnings report, but the current gap to third place is still sizable enough to favor Yes.

Leaning No: the latest November 10 traffic readings are still far below the 60-call threshold, with UKMTO showing 325 transits over Oct. 29–Nov. 4 and other monitors near 20% of normal.

Leaning Yes: San Francisco’s 7-1 record and key defensive/offensive returns improve its championship path versus the market. The price already reflects contender status, so the move is modest.

Leaning No: the freshest Arena snapshot on November 6 puts Google first and Anthropic’s Opus 5.5 third, so Anthropic still has work to do before the November 30 check.

Leaning Yes: the market looks a bit low because XRP was already around $1.07–$1.09 on November 9, 2026, leaving only a small drop to $1.00 after a week of losses and broken support levels.

Leaning No: the newest company statement on November 9 says Huang will continue leading NVIDIA “without interruption,” and there is still no qualifying resignation or removal announcement.

Leaning No: Seattle is still the better side on record, but both Darnold and Lock are uncertain. That fresh quarterback risk outweighs the home-field weakness in Las Vegas and pulls the true chance below 62%.

Leaning No: the national AAA average was about $4.0093 on November 9, still roughly 13 cents below the $4.14 trigger, and the latest move has been down, not up.

Leaning Yes: Newsom is still widely viewed as a likely 2028 entrant, and his national profile rose after the November 2026 midterms. But the field is wide open and recent polling puts him behind Harris and Ossoff.

Leaning Yes: Le Pen is still the first-round frontrunner and recent polling shows her ahead in several runoff matchups, with the key date being the Court of Cassation ruling expected by early April 2027.

Leaning Yes: Georgia is the top-ranked team and has a favorable playoff path, but still faces SEC and CFP elimination games. That makes 30% look a bit low, not dramatically wrong.

Leaning Yes: Kristersson’s path improved after November 6, when the Sweden Democrats said they would tolerate him and the Centre Party opened talks. That gives him a workable route to a majority even though the centre-left won more seats.

Leaning No: the freshest statements from Trump and the Pentagon favor him staying, slightly outweighing rising political pressure. The market’s 43% Yes looks a bit high given no actual departure signal yet.

Leaning Yes: the latest reports consistently place Rodgers on Pittsburgh, already satisfying the resolution rule. The market is near certain, but the evidence supports pushing slightly above the 95% price.

Leaning No: the latest inflation and labor prints still point toward a 25-bps hike, but the market already prices most of that in. The evidence supports Yes below the 81% market price, not a big move away from it.

Leaning Yes: the S-1 filing on October 26 appears to meet the market’s confirmation شرط. The market is already high at 94%, so only a small move remains.

Leaning No: the freshest reporting on November 9 points to a 3.67% enrichment cap plus monitoring, not a one-year halt, and Iranian officials are rejecting key concessions that would make a moratorium possible.

Leaning Yes: the November 6 jobs report was still firm, with 165,000 payroll gains and unemployment down to 4.1%, which keeps a December hike in play. The market is already near 75.5%, and the fresh labor data nudges it higher.

Leaning No: the latest direct inflation-related evidence is still below the threshold, with BLS compensation costs up 3.4% for the year ending September 2026. With no official 2026 CPI print showing 4.6% or higher yet, a >4.5% reading still looks unlikely.

Leaning Yes: the sequence is already two-thirds complete, and the fresh November 6 labor data plus a 4.1% year-end median rate point toward a December hike.

Leaning Yes: the House vote looks close but likely to pass, with Democrats, Massie, and at least some Republicans appearing enough for a simple majority. The key date is November 11, 2026, when the privileged resolution is expected to be forced to the floor.

Leaning Yes: FURIA is priced like a long shot, but its direct Stage 3 entry and recent results make it more live than the 7% market price suggests. The key positives are the June IEM Cologne runner-up finish and no reported roster problem on November 9.

Slight lean to No: the latest critical read on November 4, 2026 explicitly favored Kira Freije, and Barclay is still just one of four shortlisted artists with the decision due December 10.

Leaning Yes: Nolan is the clear current favorite, and multiple projections plus bookmakers have him around the mid-60s to low-70s before the January 21 nomination announcement.

Leaning No: the freshest team news and form point away from a scoreless draw, with Liverpool 3–1 and United 4–4 in their latest league games on November 8. The market’s 38% for 0-0 looks a bit high for a matchup that recently produced seven combined goals across both teams.

Leaning No: NVIDIA was still second on November 10, and it would likely need a major relative drop after the November 17 earnings report to finish behind Microsoft by November 30.

Leaning No: Smith still has elite numbers, but the team context is now working against him. The market’s 26% looks a bit high given Ohio State’s losses and the quarterback uncertainty.

Slight lean to Yes: Duke’s early results and roster continuity justify a small move above 16%. The market still mostly reflects the long March path and strong field.

Leaning No: the latest settlement is $86.85, and de-escalation plus surplus-supply reports weigh on prices. The market’s 13.3% Yes looks a bit high unless a major disruption hits.

Leaning No: the freshest shipping reports still show traffic far under the 60-call threshold. That supports a lower Yes probability than the 7.3% market price.

Leaning Yes: Buffalo’s 7–1 start and two-loss cushion over New England support a higher-than-market chance. Injuries matter, but the division field is still well behind.

Slight lean to Yes: the bout is still scheduled and Gane’s health looks intact, which supports the market favorite. The evidence is fresh but mostly confirms the existing price, so I only move slightly above 66%.

Leaning No: the market is near 50/50, but the strongest fresh reporting still shows Jacksonville resisting a deal. Interest exists, yet the team’s reluctance and Thomas’s remaining contract control slightly favor no trade.

No edge: the market’s 60% for LSU is broadly consistent with LSU’s home-field and night-game edge, while Texas’s better record and ranking pull the other way. The evidence is balanced enough to stay very close to the market.

Leaning Yes: Detroit is still favored by the market and has the cleaner injury picture. New England’s offensive line and backfield injuries make the upset less likely, though final inactives could still swing it.

Leaning Yes: McIlroy enters healthy, in strong recent form, and as the market favorite. The 22% price seems a bit low for the top-ranked contender, though Rahm and other contenders still make this a longshot.

Leaning Yes: Paris FC lose captain Clara Mateo, while Real Madrid still carries the stronger home price. The market already reflects much of that edge, so the move above 70% is modest.

Slight lean to Yes: both teams are strong division leaders, but the matchup remains unconfirmed with a long playoff path ahead. The market’s 10% looks slightly low given both teams’ current positions, so I’m a bit above it.

Slight lean to No: fresh reporting shows active mediation, but the U.S. still says no progress and no deal is confirmed. That leaves the Yes chance a bit below the 12% market price.

Slight lean to Yes: every published estimate sits above the 0.1% threshold, with most around 0.3%. The market is already near-certain, and only an unusually weak print would flip it.

Slight lean to Yes: New York enters as a small home favorite and just beat Philadelphia. The market already prices that edge, so the move stays modest above 56%.

No edge: the key resolution trigger has not happened, and NVIDIA still says Huang will keep leading. The investigation raises some risk, but the market already prices meaningful departure odds.

Slight lean to Yes: the market and listed line both favor Boston slightly, and a model cited Boston at 52%. Uncertain injury status keeps the edge small.

Slight lean to Yes: Gen.G has the stronger recent knockout form and higher seed, but the 63% market price is already close. The edge is modest because BLG also arrives in excellent form after beating T1.