Bank of Russia Decision in February?
Leaning No: the Bank of Russia kept the key rate at 14.00% on November 5, 2026 and signaled a slower easing path, with Governor Nabiullina saying cuts should not be rushed.
Analysis
The freshest signal is the November 9, 2026 guidance that rate cuts should not be rushed, following the November 5 decision to hold the key rate at 14.00%. That makes a 50+ bp February cut look unlikely unless inflation and supply conditions improve quickly.
The Bank’s own 2027 average rate range is 12.5–13.5%, which implies easing eventually, but the latest forecast also shows a positive output gap, strong domestic demand, and lingering inflation pressure. February is early for a large move, so the most likely outcome is a smaller cut or no change.
Arguments
For
- The central bank’s latest messaging favors gradual, conditional easing rather than a sharp February move.
- A positive output gap and persistent demand pressure argue for caution before cutting by 50 basis points or more.
Against
- The Bank’s projected 2027 average key-rate range is lower than today’s 14.00%, so easing over time is still the base case.
- If inflation trends down decisively over the next three months, the February meeting could deliver a larger cut than the current guidance suggests.
Key drivers
- The Bank of Russia held the rate at 14.00% on November 5, 2026 and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1–7.6%, signaling a restrictive stance.
- Governor Nabiullina said on November 9, 2026 that cuts should not be rushed, which points away from a 50+ bp reduction by February.
Risk factors
- If inflation and food-price pressure ease faster than expected before February 12, 2027, the Bank could have room for a larger cut.
- If production capacity recovers and lending remains weak into early 2027, officials may decide the tightening effect is strong enough to begin easing more quickly.
Scenarios
Best case
If inflation cools sharply and supply conditions normalize before the February 12, 2027 meeting, Yes rises to about 18%.
Most likely
Most likely the Bank either cuts by less than 50 bps or holds steady, with Yes around 4%.
Worst case
If the Bank keeps the key rate unchanged on February 12, 2027, Yes falls to about 0%.
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