Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Slight lean to No: the Fed’s December hike odds are still very high, and on November 10 Christopher Waller said he would support a 25-basis-point hike even if October inflation improved. The main swing factor is still the December 8-9 meeting, which is the first qualifying decision after the excluded September meeting.
Analysis
On November 10, Christopher Waller said he would back a 25-basis-point hike in December even if inflation improved, which reinforces the case for another move in the qualifying window. The latest employment report on November 6 also came in strong, with 165,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.1%.
The market is already priced for a hike, and that matches the broader Fed backdrop after the October 28 hold and still-stubborn inflation talk from policymakers. The main way this misses is if incoming data soften sharply before the December 8-9 meeting and push the Committee toward another pause.
Arguments
For
- The latest public Fed comment on November 10 was openly hawkish and pointed toward a December increase.
- Labor-market data on November 6 were stronger than expected, which gives the Fed room to keep tightening.
- Market-implied odds around the mid-80s line up with a hike being the most likely outcome.
Against
- The Fed already held rates steady on October 28, so there is still a meaningful chance it prefers to wait again.
- If inflation eases quickly in the next readouts, officials could decide that another hike is unnecessary.
Key drivers
- November 10 comments from Christopher Waller explicitly endorsed a December 25-basis-point hike.
- The November 6 jobs report was strong enough to reduce pressure for an immediate pause and support tighter policy.
Risk factors
- A softer inflation print before the December 8-9 meeting could weaken the case for a hike.
- The October 28 FOMC hold showed there is still internal caution, so a few policymakers could resist another increase.
Scenarios
Best case
If the next inflation data stay hot before the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, Yes rises to about 96%.
Most likely
Most likely the Fed hikes 25 basis points at the December 8-9 meeting, with Yes ending around 90%.
Worst case
If upcoming inflation or activity data weaken materially before December 8-9, Yes falls to about 78%.
More from this day
- politicsPolymarket47d
Pete Hegseth impeached by...?
AI85%MKT3%Edge+82Hidden GemLeaning Yes: the House vote looks close but likely to pass, with Democrats, Massie, and at least some Republicans appearing enough for a simple majority. The key date is November 11, 2026, when the privileged resolution is expected to be forced to the floor.
- politicsPolymarketEnded
Elon Musk # tweets November 9 - November 11, 2026?
AI4%MKT46%Edge-42HypedNo edge, the market looks right: the price already implies this is very unlikely, and there is no fresh tracker data showing Musk is anywhere near under 40 posts in the Nov. 9–11 window.
- pop culturePolymarket3mo
What songs will be played at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
AI45%MKT73%Edge-28HypedLeaning Yes: Jay-Z is the confirmed halftime headliner, and “Empire State of Mind” is a plausible high-profile catalog pick even though no set list or guest confirmation has been announced.