Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Leaning No: Netanyahu does not currently have the presidential mandate, and his bloc is still at 53 seats, eight short of a majority. The clearest fresh signal is Isaac Herzog giving Gadi Eisenkot the first chance to form the government on November 8, 2026.
Analysis
As of November 10, 2026, Herzog has formally tasked Eisenkot with forming the next government, while Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister and has not been sworn in post-election. Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats, so he still needs defections or a deal to reach 61.
The market is still live because Eisenkot can fail and Netanyahu could get a second chance, but the first mandate usually matters. With no reported coalition agreement for Netanyahu and the opposition bloc ahead overall, the path to his return looks narrower than the current price implies.
Arguments
For
- Likud is still the largest party with 27 seats, which gives Netanyahu a strong claim in any bargaining over leadership.
- The formal process is not finished, and a failed first mandate can shift the opportunity back to Netanyahu or another Likud-aligned option.
Against
- The official mandate is currently with Eisenkot, not Netanyahu, so Netanyahu is not the leading candidate right now.
- The reported seat count leaves Netanyahu’s bloc short of a majority, and no deal has been reported that closes that gap.
Key drivers
- Eisenkot received the first formal coalition mandate on November 8, 2026, which puts Netanyahu behind in the government-formation process.
- Netanyahu’s bloc has only 53 of 120 seats, leaving him eight short of the majority needed for swearing in as prime minister.
Risk factors
- If Eisenkot cannot assemble 61 seats within 28 days, Netanyahu could still be handed a later opportunity to form a government.
- A surprise unity deal with Bennett, ultra-Orthodox parties, or other defectors could still reopen Netanyahu’s path despite the current arithmetic.
Scenarios
Best case
If Eisenkot fails and Herzog then gives Netanyahu a successful path to 61 seats before the mandate process ends, Yes rises to about 35%.
Most likely
Most likely Eisenkot keeps the first shot at forming a coalition and Netanyahu remains out of the premiership, with Yes around 15% to 20%.
Worst case
If Eisenkot forms a coalition and is sworn in during the next few weeks, Yes falls to about 5%.
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