US gas prices this week
Leaning No: the latest official AAA reading is still above $3.80, but the drop is fast and the threshold is close. The market’s 94% Yes price looks too high given the recent weekly pace.
Analysis
That pace matters because only about 21 cents separate the latest AAA figure from the cutoff. GasBuddy’s lower estimate and its $3.75 Thanksgiving view both point toward a break below the threshold.
Arguments
For
- AAA’s Nov. 9 figure remains $0.2093 above the cutoff.
- The market resolves only on strict AAA national average data.
Against
- AAA fell about 16 cents in one week.
- GasBuddy’s national average and forecast both point below $3.80.
Key drivers
- AAA trend is falling quickly toward the cutoff.
- The November 16 resolution uses AAA’s national average only.
Risk factors
- A slowdown in crude-driven declines could keep prices above $3.80.
- AAA’s latest official reading is still above the threshold.
Scenarios
Best case
If the downward trend slows this week, Yes rises to about 92%.
Most likely
Most likely AAA ends near the threshold or slightly below, with Yes around 86%.
Worst case
If AAA falls toward $3.75 by Nov. 16, Yes falls to about 20%.
More from this day
- politicsPolymarket47d
Pete Hegseth impeached by...?
AI85%MKT3%Edge+82Hidden GemLeaning Yes: the House vote looks close but likely to pass, with Democrats, Massie, and at least some Republicans appearing enough for a simple majority. The key date is November 11, 2026, when the privileged resolution is expected to be forced to the floor.
- politicsPolymarketEnded
Elon Musk # tweets November 9 - November 11, 2026?
AI4%MKT46%Edge-42HypedNo edge, the market looks right: the price already implies this is very unlikely, and there is no fresh tracker data showing Musk is anywhere near under 40 posts in the Nov. 9–11 window.
- pop culturePolymarket3mo
What songs will be played at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
AI45%MKT73%Edge-28HypedLeaning Yes: Jay-Z is the confirmed halftime headliner, and “Empire State of Mind” is a plausible high-profile catalog pick even though no set list or guest confirmation has been announced.