Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Leaning No: the latest November 10 traffic readings are still far below the 60-call threshold, with UKMTO showing 325 transits over Oct. 29–Nov. 4 and other monitors near 20% of normal.
Analysis
November 10, 2026 reports still show Strait of Hormuz traffic well below the 60 daily transit-call level needed for Yes. The freshest figures cited are UKMTO’s 325 transits over Oct. 29–Nov. 4 and AIS-based counts that remain far under normal levels.
The market still has time through Dec. 31, but the evidence today points to a persistently disrupted route, not a quick normalization. For Yes, traffic would need a sustained rebound to roughly 420 calls over seven days, and nothing in the current data comes close yet.
Arguments
For
- There is still nearly seven weeks left before the December 31 cutoff, so conditions could improve if risk drops quickly.
- Some reports show a modest week-over-week increase in AIS-observed transits, which leaves open the possibility of a sharper recovery.
- Energy carriers are still moving through the route in meaningful numbers, so the corridor is not fully shut.
Against
- The latest weekly count of 325 transits is far below the roughly 420 needed for a 7-day average of 60.
- Attack reports and damaged navigational aids suggest ships still have strong reasons to avoid the strait.
Key drivers
- The most recent weekly traffic totals are still far below the required 7-day average of 60 daily calls.
- Multiple monitors describe the strait as reduced but not normalized, with continued attack risk suppressing use.
Risk factors
- A rapid security improvement or ceasefire could bring traffic back up before year-end.
- IMF PortWatch could publish a lagged or revised 7-day average that briefly reaches 60 even if other sources still look weak.
Scenarios
Best case
If security conditions stabilize and PortWatch publishes a 7-day average at or above 60 before December 31, Yes rises to about 25%.
Most likely
Most likely traffic stays well below normal through year-end, with Yes around 5%.
Worst case
If attack risk stays elevated and December traffic remains near current levels, Yes falls to about 1%.
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