Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?
Slight lean to No: the only active impeachment push was procedurally sidelined on November 10, 2026. A formal House impeachment before January 1 now looks unlikely, slightly below the market price.
Analysis
November 10, 2026 brought a House vote sending Massie’s impeachment resolution to Judiciary instead of the floor. That means no formal impeachment vote has happened yet, and the reported schedule leaves very little time before the January 1 deadline.
The main counterpoint is procedural, not substantive: a new push could still emerge before the deadline. But with House leaders and the White House opposed, and reporting that the resolution was effectively sidelined, the path to Yes is narrow.
Arguments
For
- No formal impeachment has occurred as of the latest reports.
- The House referral vote prevented the expected impeachment vote.
Against
- The current Congress can still act before January 1.
- Procedural delays can sometimes be reversed quickly in a crisis.
Key drivers
- Procedural shelving blocks the immediate impeachment path
- Deadline is too close for a slow committee process
Risk factors
- A surprise floor vote could still occur quickly
- A new resolution could be introduced and fast-tracked
Scenarios
Best case
If House leaders fast-track a floor vote this week, Yes rises to about 12%.
Most likely
Most likely the impeachment effort remains shelved, with Yes around 3%.
Worst case
If the Judiciary referral stands and no new vote emerges, Yes falls to about 1%.
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