2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
Slight lean to No: KMT still has the best path through Taipei and several northern/central races, and the latest polls do not show the DPP clearly dominating statewide. The key swing is whether KMT can hold Taipei and enough other counties to stay ahead in the 22-race total.
Analysis
As of November 10, the freshest polling still points to a very tight KMT–DPP race rather than a clear national wave. KMT looks solid in Taipei and remains competitive in Taichung, while New Taipei has become genuinely dangerous for the party and could flip to the DPP.
That mix keeps KMT favored, but only narrowly. This market is about who wins the most local-government heads overall, so a few close mayoral and magistrate races can swing the result; right now the evidence suggests KMT has the cleaner route, not a secure one.
Arguments
For
- KMT has a strong base in the north, and Taipei’s incumbent advantage gives it a realistic anchor for the final count.
- Even with some close polls, KMT remains competitive in multiple large jurisdictions that can add up quickly in a party-total race.
- The latest evidence does not show a broad DPP sweep, so KMT’s path to plurality remains intact.
Against
- New Taipei polling has recently favored the DPP in at least one survey, and that race is central to the final tally.
- Some Taipei polls now show the DPP ahead, which raises the chance KMT loses one of its most important holdouts.
- If Taichung shifts away from KMT, the party could lose enough ground for the DPP to edge ahead overall.
Key drivers
- KMT starts with incumbency and structural strength in Taipei, which is one of the biggest prizes in the count.
- Recent Taichung and Taipei polling is mixed, but several surveys still show KMT candidates competitive or ahead in key races that matter to the total.
Risk factors
- New Taipei is highly competitive and a DPP pickup there would be a major blow to KMT’s overall tally.
- Contradictory polling in Taipei and Taichung means a small late shift could change which party wins the most seats.
Scenarios
Best case
If KMT holds Taipei and Taichung while avoiding a New Taipei loss on November 28, Yes rises to about 72%.
Most likely
Most likely KMT finishes first by a small margin across the 22 jurisdictions, with Yes around 66%.
Worst case
If DPP wins New Taipei and also flips one of Taipei or Taichung on November 28, Yes falls to about 58%.
More from this day
- politicsPolymarket47d
Pete Hegseth impeached by...?
AI85%MKT3%Edge+82Hidden GemLeaning Yes: the House vote looks close but likely to pass, with Democrats, Massie, and at least some Republicans appearing enough for a simple majority. The key date is November 11, 2026, when the privileged resolution is expected to be forced to the floor.
- politicsPolymarketEnded
Elon Musk # tweets November 9 - November 11, 2026?
AI4%MKT46%Edge-42HypedNo edge, the market looks right: the price already implies this is very unlikely, and there is no fresh tracker data showing Musk is anywhere near under 40 posts in the Nov. 9–11 window.
- pop culturePolymarket3mo
What songs will be played at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
AI45%MKT73%Edge-28HypedLeaning Yes: Jay-Z is the confirmed halftime headliner, and “Empire State of Mind” is a plausible high-profile catalog pick even though no set list or guest confirmation has been announced.