Edges for Jul 31, 2026

The most recent chart evidence points to other Netflix titles holding the top spot, not The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare. I think the chance it finishes this week as the number one U.S. Netflix TV show is low, despite the market pricing in a very high probability.

Trump appears to have already publicly insulted Tucker Carlson in late July 2026, which strongly points to a Yes resolution. The main uncertainty is only whether any edge-case interpretation of the statement would exclude it, but that seems unlikely.

Starbucks looks materially more likely than not to finish 2026 above 41,800 global stores. The company’s own Q3 count and FY2026 store-growth guidance both point to a comfortable cushion above the threshold.

Trump has already shown a willingness to publicly attack Carlson, and the current feud makes another qualifying insult before August 31 very likely. The market appears to be underpricing the Yes case by a wide margin.

I lean Yes, but slightly below the market price. Trump is very likely to use million, billion, or trillion repeatedly in a cabinet meeting, though crossing the 30-word threshold still depends on how long and how improvisational the event is.

Recent tracking has the film around 45 million for the third weekend, which would clear the under-47 million threshold if it holds. The market is heavily priced toward No, but the public estimates leave Yes meaningfully live.

Vålerenga look materially more likely to win than the current market price suggests. Based on home advantage, pre-match odds, and the recent form snapshots provided, I estimate their win probability at about 61%.

Musk is hovering right around the threshold, but the balance of evidence still slightly favors a close above $700B. I give a meaningful minority chance that Bloomberg’s July 31 reading lands below $0.70T.

Barron Trump looks very unlikely to receive a presidential pardon before 2029. The market is pricing in a non-trivial chance despite no visible legal predicate, which makes the Yes side look overstated.

I think the market is substantially overpricing the chance of a new pandemic before GTA VI. The short remaining window, lack of current global escalation, and the high bar for a true pandemic point to a low single-digit to low-teens probability rather than a coin flip.

Austin metro home values appear to be hovering just below the $446,000 threshold, and the recent metro-level estimates are close enough that a modest late-summer decline would make a Yes outcome plausible. I think Yes is slightly more likely than No, despite the market currently leaning the other way.

NVIDIA looks close to the cutoff but not secure, so I lean slightly toward No. The market’s near-even pricing is reasonable, but the recent instability in top-company rankings makes a clean yes less likely than a coin flip.

Robinhood has enough momentum to keep growing, but the current base is still too far from 30.2 million for me to treat a year-end beat as the most likely outcome. I put the probability meaningfully below the market, mainly because Q2’s jump was helped by acquisition effects that are unlikely to repeat at the same scale.

BN looks competitive, but the latest seat-level reporting does not justify making it a strong favorite. I think this is closer to a coin flip than the market price suggests, with BN slightly below even odds to finish first.

I estimate a materially lower chance of impeachment than the market: roughly 41%. Trump is uniquely exposed to impeachment attempts, but a House majority vote still requires a favorable electoral and political sequence that is far from guaranteed.

NVIDIA has a slight edge to finish August 2026 as the world’s largest company by market cap because it is already in the top spot or very close to it and has a major earnings catalyst before the cutoff. The lead is narrow, though, so a modest post-earnings drop or a strong move in another megacap could easily flip the outcome.

Samuel Alito has a meaningful chance of retiring during Trump’s term, but the absence of any public resignation signal makes a near-certain outcome too aggressive. I put the probability materially below the market at 43%.

I estimate about a 14% chance that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is formally invoked during Trump’s presidency. The main reason is the long remaining time horizon combined with his age and the possibility of a serious incapacity crisis, but the constitutional and partisan hurdles keep this a low-probability event.

An actual U.S. acquisition of any part of Greenland looks very unlikely, despite aggressive rhetoric and some formal political signaling. The most plausible outcome is expanded U.S. military access or a stronger bilateral defense arrangement, not a transfer of sovereignty.

I estimate a 98% chance that the U.S. does not acquire Greenland by the deadline. The legal, diplomatic, and timing hurdles are extreme, and there is no evidence of an actual sovereignty transfer process.

Anthropic is still the favorite, but the market looks a bit too confident given how quickly the top slot can change on a single leaderboard. I would price Yes at a solid majority chance, not the very high level implied by the current market.

Alibaba is a real contender and may still be the top Chinese model provider by late September, but the lead is fragile in a fast-moving field. I think the market is somewhat overconfident, and the true probability is closer to the high-50s than the mid-70s.

Trump’s rhetoric creates real headline risk, but an actual U.S. retaking of the Panama Canal would require extraordinary legal, diplomatic, or military steps that look very unlikely. I put the chance at 7%, well below the market’s 22%.

Waymo is already at 11 public cities or regions, so the question is whether it launches just one more place by year-end. I think that is possible but still more likely than not to happen, so I put the chance of staying below 12 at 22%.

I put this at 4%. Trump is likely to keep pressing for U.S. influence in Greenland, but an actual purchase of territory remains extremely unlikely because Greenland and Denmark oppose it and the realistic path is security or investment deals, not sovereignty transfer.

I estimate a 46% chance that the Chicago Pro Football Team relocates to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 regular season. The team is clearly exploring a move, but the lack of an approved Illinois site and the real possibility of an Indiana alternative make the market look a bit too optimistic on Illinois specifically.

Trump has already shown a willingness to publicly threaten the Insurrection Act, and the current mix of protest/immigration tensions makes a future invocation plausible. I rate a Yes outcome at 38%, higher than the market because the tail risk is materially larger than a simple rarity-based view suggests.

I think the chance of a genuinely bearish 2026 for Trump is meaningfully higher than the market implies, though still far from a majority outcome. The most likely result is a messy year with several setbacks, not a full collapse.

Anthropic is the favorite because it appears to have one of the strongest frontier models and has recently topped several related rankings. Still, the specific Arena leaderboard can shift quickly, so the true chance is meaningfully lower than the market’s very bullish price suggests.

USAID looks meaningfully vulnerable, but a true elimination is still not the base case because legal and congressional constraints are substantial. I estimate a 41% chance that it is eliminated in the sense this market is likely to resolve it.

I think the 1.6% to 2.0% band is the most likely outcome, at about 47%, and it is somewhat underpriced versus the market. The CBO’s 1.8% long-run anchor makes this the modal result, even though there is still meaningful risk of a lower-growth outcome.

I think the bull case for Trump in 2026 is possible but still a minority outcome, with a meaningful chance that policy wins and institutional leverage outweigh the legal and macro drag. My independent estimate is 15%, well above the current market price but still far from the majority case.

A company-announced AGI by Oct. 2027 looks plausible, but not likely enough to be the base case. I put the chance modestly above the market because the question only requires a public claim, not broad consensus or proof.

I estimate a low-probability but nontrivial chance that federal spending ends up at least $250 billion below the relevant baseline before 2028, mainly if Congress enacts a sizable package of domestic cuts and some discretionary restraint. My independent probability is meaningfully above the market’s 2%, but still well below even odds.

Ethereum can still make a sharp late-year move, but the balance of current price action and forecast consensus makes $3,000 by the end of 2026 more of a tail outcome than the base case. I estimate a 22% chance that ETH reaches $3,000 by December 31, 2026.

I make this about 11% likely. It is still a long shot, but the Mayorkas precedent and a polarized House make a fresh cabinet impeachment more plausible than the raw historical record suggests.

My baseline is that 2035 GDP growth is most likely to sit in the low-to-mid 2% range, with 2.1-2.5% the single most likely bucket and 1.6-2.0% close behind. I think the market is a bit too pessimistic on the central growth range and too generous to the 4.6-5.0% tail.

I put the chance that Trump meaningfully expands H-1B/high-skill immigration during this term at 18%. The policy trajectory, political incentives, and legislative environment all point much more toward restriction than expansion.

Kari Lake still has a real but limited path to confirmation before Sept. 1. I put the chance at 11%, higher than the market’s 3% because an Executive Calendar nomination can move quickly if Senate leadership decides to clear it.

I lean slightly toward Japan's core-core CPI ending 2026 at or below 1.9%, but only by a narrow margin. The latest national reading is still below 2.0, even though Tokyo has recently signaled firmer underlying pressure.

I think there is a meaningful but still limited chance Gianni Infantino is out by year-end, with the most likely outcome still being that he stays in office through December 31. The market appears a bit too high relative to the evidence, because the current pressure is real but there is no confirmed resignation, removal, or formal process underway.

Marine Le Pen has a credible path to the presidency because she starts as a leading contender in first-round polling and the legal barrier that once threatened her candidacy has eased. Still, the two-round structure, likely anti-RN coordination, and remaining legal or campaign shocks keep this far from a sure thing.

A Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement is possible but still looks unlikely by year-end. The recent Musk comments raise the odds from near-zero, but the lack of a formal process and the substantial structural hurdles keep this as a low-probability event.

Birmingham City have a small but real upset chance because this is a friendly, but the underlying strength gap still makes a win unlikely. I would price Yes at 13%, slightly below the market’s implied level only because the matchup is so lopsided on paper.

Both companies are already in confidential IPO preparation, and the reported timing windows point to a public listing well before 2040. I think the chance that at least one of OpenAI or Anthropic IPOs first is high, with Anthropic holding a slight edge on timing if the question is about order.

I think the chance of at least one quarterly GDP print above 5% during 2025-2028 is below the market’s 25% price, around 18%. The economy looks more likely to muddle through at 2%-3% growth, with upside bursts possible but not the base case.

My estimate is 20% that Elon Musk personally reaches Mars before August 1, 2099. The long time horizon and Musk’s intense Mars fixation make this more plausible than the market suggests, but personal survival and the absence of any confirmed plan keep it well below even odds.

Abdul El-Sayed is favored to win the primary, but a victory by more than 25 points looks very unlikely. The polling gap is currently more consistent with a mid-teens margin than a blowout.

The market is asking about a real invasion, meaning a military offensive aimed at establishing control over Iranian territory, not just airstrikes. That is still possible in 2026, but the absence of ground-force indicators and the very high escalation threshold make a Yes outcome less likely than the current price implies.

United Russia is still the likeliest party to finish with the most seats, thanks to overwhelming institutional advantages, a fragmented opposition, and a strong position in single-member districts. The main uncertainty is not whether it stays first, but whether a weaker party-list showing or an upset in districts could narrow the margin enough for another party to outgain it.

I estimate a 41% chance that the President confirms exactly one Supreme Court justice during the 2025-2029 term. That remains the single most likely outcome, but the market looks a bit too confident in it because no vacancy exists yet and multiple plausible paths still lead to zero or two confirmations.

I think formal elimination of the Department of Education is possible but still unlikely, with a meaningful path only if Trump gets stronger congressional alignment or finds a procedural route around the filibuster. My independent estimate is 21%, modestly above the market because the administration is already moving aggressively to hollow out the department even though legal abolition remains difficult.

I assess a very low chance that the U.S. will acquire any part of Canada before 2029, closer to 3% than the market’s 9%. The current evidence points to trade conflict and political brinkmanship, not any real pathway to territorial transfer.

I estimate a 39% chance of a recession in 2027. Baseline forecasts lean toward slower growth rather than contraction, but the probability of a late-cycle downturn remains meaningful because several major economies are still vulnerable to policy, energy, and trade shocks.

The chance of a confirmed Anthropic sale by August 31 looks low. The strongest recent reporting says the stake was retained, and the only concrete transaction so far appears to have excluded private assets like Anthropic.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still running below normal, and the latest hard data are well under the settlement threshold. I think there is a meaningful chance of recovery before year-end, but not enough to make Yes the favored outcome.

Bad Bunny is still the favorite to finish 2026 as Spotify’s top artist, backed by massive global scale, recent dominance, and a strong history of repeating at the top. Still, the race is not locked up because rival pop acts have meaningful momentum and there is enough time for streaming patterns to change.

I put the chance that Trump is both impeached and removed from office before the end of the term at 11%. The recent impeachment talk is real, but the constitutional bar for removal is still extremely high and the current evidence shows only threats and filing efforts, not a completed path to conviction.

July inflation is still more likely to come in above 3.1% than at or below it. The recent disinflation trend is real, but the move required to clear this threshold looks larger than what current data and nowcasts suggest, so I assign a low single-digit chance to Yes.

Spotify is likely to mention Premium repeatedly, but clearing the 20-mention threshold is still only a modest-probability event because earnings calls usually rely on a mix of terms like subscribers, ARPU, revenue, and paid users rather than repeating the branded word constantly.