Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

The strongest evidence points to an aggressive attempt to dismantle USAID’s independent operations: employees were put on leave, programs were canceled, and there is an apparent effort to absorb functions into the State Department. That is a serious operational blow and shows clear intent, but it is still not the same thing as final elimination in law. If the market resolves on whether USAID ceases to function as a distinct agency, the odds rise; if it requires formal abolition or an unmistakably completed merger authorized by law, the odds fall materially.

The biggest obstacle to a Yes outcome is institutional durability. USAID has an established legal basis and the provided context does not show Congress formally abolishing it. Litigation also creates a path for injunctions, delays, or a partial rollback that leaves the agency existing on paper even if diminished in practice. In other words, the administration has already demonstrated capability to disrupt the agency, but disruption is easier than irreversible elimination.

Relative to the current 29% Yes price, I think the market is somewhat too low if the contract resolves broadly on practical elimination or absorption into State. The administration has already crossed beyond rhetoric into concrete dismantling actions, and the remaining time through 2029 leaves room for further executive action, court outcomes, or legislative bargaining. But I would not price it near a majority because the need for durable legal closure makes a clean elimination less likely than a severe downsizing or effective merger.