How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
I estimate a 41% chance that the President confirms exactly one Supreme Court justice during the 2025-2029 term. That remains the single most likely outcome, but the market looks a bit too confident in it because no vacancy exists yet and multiple plausible paths still lead to zero or two confirmations.
Analysis
The key fact is that the Court currently has nine seated justices, no vacancies, and no pending nominations, so any confirmation still requires a vacancy to open first. With more than a third of the term already elapsed and only about 2.5 years left, the remaining window is shorter than it would have been at the start of the presidency, which matters because Supreme Court vacancies are rare and often arrive unpredictably rather than on a schedule.
The age profile keeps one confirmation on the table. Thomas and Alito are the most obvious vacancy risks, while Roberts and Sotomayor are also old enough that a departure would not be surprising; by contrast, the younger bloc makes a cascade of multiple vacancies less likely. That combination points to exactly one confirmation as the modal outcome, but not by a wide margin, because the same aging dynamic that creates one opening also creates some chance of a second opening before January 2029.
Relative to the market, I’m slightly more skeptical of the yes side. The market seems to be giving too little probability to the no-vacancy case and a bit too much to the idea that one opening will definitely materialize, especially now that time has passed without any vacancy. I still think one confirmation is the most likely single outcome, but the pricing looks a little too aggressive on exactly one and not aggressive enough on zero.
Arguments
For
- A vacancy at one of the older seats is still plausible within the remaining term, and a single opening is the most natural pathway to the exact-one outcome.
- If a vacancy arises with enough time for Senate action, the confirmation process is procedurally easier than in the pre-2017 era, improving the odds that any opening translates into an actual seat filled.
Against
- No vacancy currently exists, and the remaining time in the term is limited, which makes a no-confirmation outcome more plausible than the market may be implying.
- Multiple confirmations require either more than one vacancy or unusually compressed timing, and the probability of that cluster is still meaningfully lower than a single clean confirmation.
Key drivers
- The Court has no current vacancy, so the bet depends entirely on whether a new opening appears before the term ends.
- The oldest justices create a meaningful but not overwhelming chance of one vacancy, while a second vacancy is possible but materially less likely.
Risk factors
- A sudden retirement or death among an older justice could create a confirmation opportunity quickly and push the outcome toward one or even two confirmations.
- If the Court remains stable through the rest of the term, the result shifts to zero confirmations and the one-confirmation bet fails.
Scenarios
Best case
An older justice retires or dies with enough time left in the term for a successful nomination and confirmation, and no second vacancy occurs before January 2029.
Most likely
One of the older justices creates a vacancy, but the rest of the Court stays intact, leading to exactly one confirmed replacement and making one the most likely single outcome.
Worst case
No justice leaves the Court during the remainder of the term, or a vacancy comes too late to be confirmed before the term ends, producing zero confirmations.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 47% |
| 2 | 27% | 30% |
| 0 | 26% | 20% |
| 3 | 4% | 5% |
| 4 | 2% | 2% |
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