US real GDP growth in 2036?

The strongest anchor here is the CBO’s long-run forecast of about 1.8% real GDP growth through 2036, which sits directly in the 1.6% to 2.0% range. For a 2036 question, that structural baseline matters much more than the current 2.1% annualized pace in early 2026, because cyclical strength ten years earlier usually fades and long-run potential growth takes over. That makes the middle band the single most likely outcome in my view, not just one of several plausible outcomes.

The main challenge to that view is that the U.S. trend rate could drift lower if productivity disappoints or labor-force growth weakens more than expected, which would push the result into 1.1% to 1.5%. That lower band is the most credible alternative to the CBO anchor. On the upside, a sustained productivity revival or better capital deepening could lift growth into 2.1% to 2.5%, but that would require a durable improvement in trend fundamentals rather than a one-off cyclical rebound. A 0.0% or below outcome looks like a tail risk rather than a base case for a developed economy over a full year in 2036.

Relative to the market, I think the 36% price on the 1.6% to 2.0% band is a bit low. The market appears to be leaning too hard toward either persistent slowdown or broader uncertainty, when the most relevant public baseline still clusters tightly around 1.8%. I would still keep the probability below 50% because ten-year macro forecasts are inherently noisy, but the center of mass should be in the middle band more often than the market implies.