Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

The cleanest read from the available evidence is that a public listing from at least one of these two companies is much more likely than not. Anthropic is reportedly further along on timing, and OpenAI is also in the IPO pipeline, which makes the idea that neither company reaches the public markets by 2040 look increasingly unlikely unless there is a major strategic reversal or an unusually bad capital-markets environment.

If the market is really asking which company gets there first, the recent reporting gives Anthropic a modest timing advantage, not a lock. Confidential filings are only an early step, so the order can still change if one company decides to wait for valuation reasons, governance cleanup, or better market conditions. Even so, the combination of active preparation and suggested listing windows in 2026 to 2027 makes a first IPO from this pair look closer than the market average company-to-IPO trade.

Relative to the current 83% price, I think the market is a bit conservative rather than overly enthusiastic. The main downside is execution risk, but the balance of evidence suggests the bigger question is when one of them lists, not whether it happens at all before the 2040 deadline.