Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

The strongest fact in the current record is that Alito has shown no public sign of planning to resign, and the recent reporting points to him continuing to serve rather than preparing an exit. His active participation in major 2026 decisions argues against any imminent departure, which matters because Supreme Court justices usually leave only when they have decided to do so, not because of routine speculation.

At the same time, the calendar does create real incentive. Alito is in his mid-70s, and Trump’s presidency offers a politically favorable confirmation window for a conservative successor, so a strategic retirement would make sense if he wants to step down at all. That said, justices often stay longer than outside observers expect, and without health problems, personal statements, or a clear retirement pattern, the base rate for a voluntary exit over the next three and a half years is still far from certain.

The 66% market price looks too high relative to the evidence provided. I think the market is overweighting age and the obvious strategic logic of retiring under a friendly president, while underweighting the fact that there is no direct indication of an impending resignation and that many justices simply remain on the bench until they have a much stronger personal reason to leave.