Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

The key fact is that the market does not need a full return to pre-crisis traffic, but it does need a sustained 7-day average of at least 60 transit calls. Recent reporting suggests the Strait is still operating below normal, with recent counts around the mid-30s versus a pre-disruption level closer to the high 80s, so the gap to settlement remains substantial even after some recovery. Because the trigger is based on a 7-day moving average, a brief burst of traffic would not be enough; the improvement has to hold for at least a week.

Arguments for Yes are mostly about timing and optionality. There are still several months left in 2026, and shipping flows can rebound quickly if security conditions improve, if diplomatic pressure reduces the perceived risk, or if operators become comfortable that transits are no longer unusually dangerous. The threshold of 60 is materially below the historical baseline, so the market does not need a full normalization of the strait, only a strong enough partial recovery to cross the line.

Arguments against Yes are stronger on the current evidence. The available reports still describe traffic as depressed and highly sensitive to security conditions, which means the shipping industry is behaving cautiously rather than reverting to normal patterns. Even if the situation improves somewhat, vessel operators may continue to avoid the route or use it selectively, and that could leave the 7-day average trapped below 60 through year-end. In that sense, the market is betting on a meaningful operational normalization, not just a few better days, and that is not yet clearly in motion.