Edges for Aug 1, 2026

Starbucks looks materially more likely than not to finish 2026 above 41,800 global stores. The company’s own Q3 count and FY2026 store-growth guidance both point to a comfortable cushion above the threshold.

The evidence strongly suggests the United States has already carried out direct military action against Iran in 2026, so the market is leaning toward Yes if the resolution standard is broad. The main reason this is not near-certain is that the contract language is narrower than ordinary usage and may require a true territorial-control invasion rather than airstrikes alone.

Recent tracking has the film around 45 million for the third weekend, which would clear the under-47 million threshold if it holds. The market is heavily priced toward No, but the public estimates leave Yes meaningfully live.

Anthropic is a serious contender because Claude is widely regarded as one of the strongest agentic models, but the market price seems far too optimistic for a single leaderboard snapshot in a crowded field. I would price Anthropic materially below the current market, with a real but not dominant chance of finishing first.

USAID now appears highly likely to be treated as eliminated in practice by the end of Trump’s term, even if the legal and statutory status remains contested. The main uncertainty is whether the market resolves this as de facto dismantling or requires a formal congressional abolition.

Barron Trump looks very unlikely to receive a presidential pardon before 2029. The market is pricing in a non-trivial chance despite no visible legal predicate, which makes the Yes side look overstated.

Trump appears to have clearly insulted Tucker Carlson publicly before the deadline, so this market should resolve Yes with very high confidence. The reported comments meet the market’s definition of a personal negative attack rather than a mere policy disagreement.

I think 2026 has a real but minority chance of finishing first, with second place still the most likely outcome. The market appears somewhat too optimistic on a new record given the evidence so far and the high bar set by 2024.

Robinhood has enough momentum to keep growing, but the current base is still too far from 30.2 million for me to treat a year-end beat as the most likely outcome. I put the probability meaningfully below the market, mainly because Q2’s jump was helped by acquisition effects that are unlikely to repeat at the same scale.

MetaMask would likely clear a $100M FDV quickly if it launches a transferable token at all, but the main uncertainty is whether the launch happens before the deadline. I see the Yes outcome as plausible and materially higher than the current market price, though still far from certain because launch timing remains the gating factor.

The reported killing of Ali Khamenei gives him a strong path to the top of Google’s 2026 passing searches, but the outcome still depends on the report being broadly confirmed and on whether another death generates an even larger global search spike. I think Yes is more likely than the current market price implies, but it is still far from certain.

My base case is that U.S. real GDP growth in 2035 lands in the high-1% range, with the 1.6% to 2.0% bucket the single most likely outcome and meaningful tail risk of a 2.1% to 2.5% print. I think the market is slightly too concentrated on the lower-growth outcomes and underweights the chance that productivity and cyclical normalization keep growth a bit above the CBO-style anchor.

Samuel Alito has a meaningful chance of retiring during Trump’s term, but the absence of any public resignation signal makes a near-certain outcome too aggressive. I put the probability materially below the market at 43%.

Trump has already shown a willingness to publicly attack Carlson, and the current feud makes another qualifying insult before August 31 very likely. The market appears to be underpricing the Yes case by a wide margin.

Section IV of the 25th Amendment is possible but still unlikely during Trump’s remaining term. I estimate the chance of an actual invocation at about 8%, well below the market-implied 30%.

I estimate a 31% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged at the December 2027 meeting. That is still the single most likely outcome, but only modestly so, because by then the policy path is more likely to have involved at least one cut or hike than a prolonged exact hold.

I think there is a meaningful but still limited chance Gianni Infantino is out by year-end, with the most likely outcome still being that he stays in office through December 31. The market appears a bit too high relative to the evidence, because the current pressure is real but there is no confirmed resignation, removal, or formal process underway.

Anthropic is still the favorite, but the market looks a bit too confident given how quickly the top slot can change on a single leaderboard. I would price Yes at a solid majority chance, not the very high level implied by the current market.

I put the chance at 11%. The rhetoric is loud, but an actual transfer of sovereignty or exclusive control over any part of Greenland remains a low-probability outcome given Denmark and Greenland's firm opposition and the absence of a concrete legal pathway.

Trump has already shown a willingness to publicly threaten the Insurrection Act, and the current mix of protest/immigration tensions makes a future invocation plausible. I rate a Yes outcome at 38%, higher than the market because the tail risk is materially larger than a simple rarity-based view suggests.

OpenAI still looks more likely to reach the public markets first, but the edge is narrower than the market is pricing. I would put the probability at 64%, mainly because OpenAI has the stronger formal IPO signal while Anthropic’s timing looks comparably close if OpenAI slips further.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day looks poised for an enormous opening, but the available tracking still places it well short of Avengers: Endgame’s record. The most likely outcome is No, with Yes requiring a major upside surprise beyond the current consensus.

Rubio looks somewhat more likely than not to say Trump at least three times during the appearance because the interview appears to center on Trump-linked foreign policy themes. Still, the cutoff is word-count based, so a shorter or tightly edited segment could keep it below three mentions.

Anthropic is the favorite because it appears to have one of the strongest frontier models and has recently topped several related rankings. Still, the specific Arena leaderboard can shift quickly, so the true chance is meaningfully lower than the market’s very bullish price suggests.

An actual return of the Panama Canal to U.S. control during Trump’s term looks very unlikely. Trump may generate pressure, threats, or side deals, but the chance of a true sovereignty reversal is only about 7%.

Alibaba is a real contender and may still be the top Chinese model provider by late September, but the lead is fragile in a fast-moving field. I think the market is somewhat overconfident, and the true probability is closer to the high-50s than the mid-70s.

DTF St. Louis looks more likely than not to finish with 0 or 1 Primetime Emmy wins, but the margin is not huge because it has enough nominations to plausibly break through in at least one major category. I’d price the Yes side somewhat below the market’s current level, but still as the favorite.

I estimate a 41% chance that Base launches an official, transferable token by June 30, 2027. The main positive signal is that Base is openly exploring the idea, but the threshold for a true launch remains high because Coinbase has not committed and the regulatory and reputational hurdles are still meaningful.

I think the chance of a genuinely bearish 2026 for Trump is meaningfully higher than the market implies, though still far from a majority outcome. The most likely result is a messy year with several setbacks, not a full collapse.

Mike Lee looks somewhat more likely than not to support crypto market structure legislation in principle, but the lack of a clear public endorsement and the real risk that no qualifying final-passage vote happens keep this from being a strong yes. I put his Yes probability slightly below a coin flip at 46%.

June JOLTS openings are more likely to stay above 7.2M than fall below it, but the slowdown in labor momentum makes a modest downside surprise possible. I estimate a 16% chance of a sub-7.2M reading.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 at some point before the end of 2026 looks possible but still not likely enough to be the base case. The market is pricing a low chance, and while a late-year rally could get ETH there, the current evidence points to a sub-50% outcome.

Democrats have a credible path to winning both chambers, but the Senate map is the main obstacle and keeps this below even odds. I think the current market is somewhat too optimistic on a full Democratic sweep.

I put the chance that Trump is impeached and then removed from office before the end of this term at 8%. Impeachment alone is conceivable, but actual Senate removal remains extraordinarily difficult and historically almost never happens to a sitting president.

I think the bull case for Trump in 2026 is possible but still a minority outcome, with a meaningful chance that policy wins and institutional leverage outweigh the legal and macro drag. My independent estimate is 15%, well above the current market price but still far from the majority case.

A formal Trump resignation before January 2029 looks unlikely to me, with a single-digit probability rather than a double-digit one. The market appears to be pricing in broader early-exit risk than the literal wording justifies.

I think the chance of at least one quarterly GDP print above 5% during 2025-2028 is below the market’s 25% price, around 18%. The economy looks more likely to muddle through at 2%-3% growth, with upside bursts possible but not the base case.

NVIDIA is currently in the lead and has recent momentum, but the advantage is thin enough that the month-end outcome is still genuinely contestable. I slightly favor Yes, though I think the market is pricing in a bit too much persistence.

Trump is meaningfully exposed to another impeachment attempt before January 2029, but the path from political hostility to a successful House vote is still hard. I see the yes outcome as somewhat less likely than the market implies, because the event needs a specific alignment of House control, leadership action, and sustained scandal.

I estimate a low-probability but nontrivial chance that federal spending ends up at least $250 billion below the relevant baseline before 2028, mainly if Congress enacts a sizable package of domestic cuts and some discretionary restraint. My independent probability is meaningfully above the market’s 2%, but still well below even odds.

I put the odds of an actual purchase of at least part of Greenland at 9%. Trump’s rhetoric keeps the idea alive, but the practical path in the available time looks like expanded U.S. access or defense rights, not a sovereignty transfer.

Headline CPI has cooled quickly, but the July print still looks more likely to come in above 3.1% than at or below it. The recent nowcast and sticky underlying inflation suggest this is a low-probability tail outcome rather than the base case.

Kari Lake still has a real but limited path to confirmation before Sept. 1. I put the chance at 11%, higher than the market’s 3% because an Executive Calendar nomination can move quickly if Senate leadership decides to clear it.

Solana reaching $140 by the end of 2026 looks possible but far from the base case. The current market price of 16% feels a bit too low given published forecast ranges, but the evidence still supports a sub-25% probability rather than a strong yes.

Google has a real path to finishing first, but it is still more likely that another frontier lab holds the top Arena spot on the check date. I put Google’s chance at 18%, modestly above the current market price but still clearly a minority outcome.

Thanedar still has the advantages of incumbency, money, and name recognition, but the race has clearly tightened against him and McKinney looks better positioned. I rate Thanedar as an underdog with a meaningful but not large path to victory.

My estimate is 20% that Elon Musk personally reaches Mars before August 1, 2099. The long time horizon and Musk’s intense Mars fixation make this more plausible than the market suggests, but personal survival and the absence of any confirmed plan keep it well below even odds.

A company-announced AGI by Oct. 2027 looks plausible, but not likely enough to be the base case. I put the chance modestly above the market because the question only requires a public claim, not broad consensus or proof.

Keith Sonderling is overwhelmingly likely to remain Trump’s next Secretary of Labor. The nomination has already cleared committee, he is the acting secretary, and there is no credible competing trajectory for another contender at this point.

Anthropic is currently leading the exact leaderboard that settles this market, so the most likely outcome is that it stays first rather than finishing second. A Yes is still plausible if a rival overtakes it late in the month, but that looks like a minority outcome.

Todd Blanche remains the most likely next formal Attorney General, but the Senate fight keeps this from being close to certain. I put his chances a bit above the current market because he already holds the acting job and Trump is still visibly committed to him.

The Strait of Hormuz is still operating well below normal levels, and the 60-transit weekly average threshold looks difficult to reach without a meaningful and sustained security improvement. I see a below-coin-flip chance of normalization by year-end, with the market likely a bit too optimistic relative to the latest traffic data.

I think a new Illinois location is still the single most likely outcome, but the probability is closer to a coin flip-plus than the market’s confident 61%. Indiana is the main threat, and the chance of delay or no final relocation announcement by the deadline is materially higher than the market seems to assume.

Exactly one confirmation is the most likely outcome, but not by a wide margin. The Court’s older members make one vacancy plausible, while a second opening is still live enough that I put the probability a bit below the market’s current pricing.

I assess a very low chance that the U.S. will acquire any part of Canada before 2029, closer to 3% than the market’s 9%. The current evidence points to trade conflict and political brinkmanship, not any real pathway to territorial transfer.

NVIDIA is currently the largest company, not the second-largest, and the market is already heavily leaning toward that status persisting. A move to second is possible if Apple overtakes it or if NVIDIA weakens around upcoming catalysts, but I still see that as a minority outcome.

Alibaba looks like the frontrunner, but the lead is not secure because the market depends on a narrow leaderboard snapshot and Chinese competitors can close gaps quickly. I assign a modestly bullish 61% chance that Alibaba is still the top Chinese AI company at the August checkpoint.

Situational Awareness appears to be actively trying to secure outside capital, so the Yes case is real. But the evidence so far points more to a pressured fundraising effort than to a clearly completed capital raise by August 31, which keeps the probability below even money.

I put the most likely 2036 growth band at 1.6% to 2.0%, slightly above the market’s current 30% because long-run trend growth near 1.9% makes that range the natural center of gravity. I still see meaningful odds of both a softer sub-1.5% year and an upside surprise above 2.0%.

Spain looks like the most likely winner among the leading contenders, but the true chance is still modest in absolute terms because World Cups are highly volatile. I would price Spain at about 18% to win, a bit above the current market.