Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The main question is not whether there will be anti-Trump rhetoric, because there already is, but whether the House can actually assemble a simple majority for articles of impeachment before January 20, 2029. That is a meaningful threshold, and the key path runs through control of the House after the 2026 and 2028 elections. Given the time remaining, the best argument for Yes is that Trump remains unusually polarizing, has already been impeached twice, and could face a future House majority that sees impeachment as both politically feasible and electorally useful.

The main argument against Yes is that rhetoric has been much easier than action. The current news flow shows active calls and draftsmanship, but also repeated failure to build real momentum, especially without bipartisan support. If Republicans keep the House, impeachment is very unlikely absent an extraordinary scandal; if Democrats take the House, impeachment becomes much more plausible, but even then leadership and caucus discipline are not automatic, and lawmakers may weigh backlash, procedural saturation, and the limited practical effect of impeaching a president who may already be in his final stretch.

At 63% yes, the market looks too aggressive relative to the actual decision tree. I think traders are overweighting Trump’s history and the general hostility around him while underweighting how often impeachment talk does not translate into a floor vote. My estimate is higher than the near-term odds, because the 2026 and 2028 election windows create real opportunities, but still well below the market because the default outcome remains no House majority for articles of impeachment before the term ends.