Edges for Jul 30, 2026

Most credible domestic forecasts sit well below $280 million, so I think the under-threshold outcome is much more likely than the market price suggests. The main upside risk is that Spider-Man can still produce a record-level opening, but that would require a major surprise versus current tracking.

The current tracking suggests a very large opening, but not necessarily one large enough to clear 120m on the opening day figure used by this market. I think less than 120m is more likely than the market price implies, with the center of gravity in the low-to-mid 100s rather than comfortably above the line.

The latest box office tracking and industry forecasts point to a third weekend around the mid-40 millions, which puts the under-47m outcome in the lead. The market appears to be pricing in a meaningful chance of a stronger-than-expected hold, but the balance of evidence still favors Yes.

A new pandemic before GTA VI looks very unlikely over the remaining time window, and I put the chance of Yes at just 4%. The market is pricing in far too much tail risk for a horizon of only a few months unless a major outbreak appears very quickly.

I expect the most likely 2033 GDP-growth bucket is 1.6% to 2.0%, with a meaningful chance of 2.1% to 2.5% if the question refers to the United States. If the market is instead about global GDP or an advanced economy aggregate, the distribution shifts lower but still clusters around sub-2% growth.

Anthropic is more likely to go public first, because it appears to have filed before OpenAI and has earlier reported timing chatter. The market is pricing a fairly high chance of OpenAI winning the race, but the current evidence slightly favors Anthropic or at least makes OpenAI’s lead far less certain than the price implies.

Cleitinho Azevedo looks like the strongest single contender in Minas Gerais right now, and the polling advantage gives him a real path to victory. The main reason this is not a much higher probability is the lingering uncertainty around party backing, ballot mechanics, and whether the lead can be sustained through the campaign.

I estimate a low-to-moderate chance that Barron Trump receives a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029, because there is no evidence of any criminal exposure or pardon process involving him. The current market is pricing this as nearly a coin flip, which looks too high absent some future legal development or a highly unusual family-related pardon decision.

BN looks competitive, but the latest seat-level reporting does not justify making it a strong favorite. I think this is closer to a coin flip than the market price suggests, with BN slightly below even odds to finish first.

I lean No overall because the market question is about net seat gains, and United Russia starts from such a huge seat total that it has much less room to post the largest increase than smaller parties do. It is still very likely to remain the dominant party, but that is not the same thing as gaining the most seats versus today.

I lean slightly toward Yes, because the most recent high-credibility readings have already shown Musk below $700B and the market is now asking whether he can climb back above that line by the July 31 Bloomberg update. The threshold is close enough that a modest rebound could still flip it, so this is not a strong conviction call.

Anthropic looks like a real contender and may have the edge if current benchmark strength carries through to the August 31 check, but the specific leaderboard can move quickly and OpenAI remains the main threat. I would price a Yes outcome below the current market, though still meaningfully above even odds.

I assign a moderate probability that the bear case for Trump will occur in 2026, but I do not think the market should be as extreme as 90% No implies. The legal calendar, discovery fights, and likely political backlash make a negative year plausible, though not close to certain.

Hacks is a serious Emmy contender, but the counted Primetime categories are competitive enough that a one-win-or-less outcome is still plausible. I put the chance of 0 or 1 Primetime Emmy wins at 26%.

I estimate a materially lower chance of impeachment than the market: roughly 41%. Trump is uniquely exposed to impeachment attempts, but a House majority vote still requires a favorable electoral and political sequence that is far from guaranteed.

Alibaba is the likeliest Chinese company to hold the top arena-ranked model by the end of July, but the lead is not secure enough to justify near-certainty. The main reason for Yes is that Qwen is already near or at the top of Chinese leaderboards, while the main reason for No is that the competitive field is crowded and a late-month swap is still plausible.

Democrats look somewhat favored to retake the House, but the Senate remains the harder hurdle, making a full Democratic sweep plausible only as a minority outcome. I would price D Senate, D House at about one-in-four, below the current market level.

Charlie Hatcher is a meaningful underdog, but this race is much closer than the market implies. The latest polling and spending suggest a live upset path, though Ogles still has the stronger built-in primary advantages.

I estimate about a 14% chance that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is formally invoked during Trump’s presidency. The main reason is the long remaining time horizon combined with his age and the possibility of a serious incapacity crisis, but the constitutional and partisan hurdles keep this a low-probability event.

I estimate a 98% chance that the U.S. does not acquire Greenland by the deadline. The legal, diplomatic, and timing hurdles are extreme, and there is no evidence of an actual sovereignty transfer process.

Trump’s rhetoric creates real headline risk, but an actual U.S. retaking of the Panama Canal would require extraordinary legal, diplomatic, or military steps that look very unlikely. I put the chance at 7%, well below the market’s 22%.

NVIDIA still has a real path back to the top because the lead over Apple is narrow and the ranking can flip on a single strong or weak session. But with Apple reportedly ahead right now and only two trading days left, No looks more likely than Yes.

An actual U.S. acquisition of any part of Greenland looks very unlikely, despite aggressive rhetoric and some formal political signaling. The most plausible outcome is expanded U.S. military access or a stronger bilateral defense arrangement, not a transfer of sovereignty.

Abdul El-Sayed has a real path to an Oakland County win because the race appears to be a two-candidate contest and he currently has statewide momentum. Still, Oakland County is a suburban Democratic area where Haley Stevens looks naturally better positioned, so I would make El-Sayed a clear underdog but not a long shot.

The evidence points to a modestly low chance that the full Trump bull case materializes in 2026, but not as low as the market suggests. Trump is still pushing major policy changes, yet the most important versions of his agenda keep running into judicial limits, making a clean bullish year more likely to be partial than decisive.

Trump has clearly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act, but there is still no confirmed invocation, and legal and political barriers remain substantial. My independent estimate is that a Yes outcome is more likely than the market implies, but still not the base case.

Abdul El-Sayed is still the likelier winner in Wayne County, but the race looks closer than the market price suggests. His local ties and progressive appeal help, while Haley Stevens’s strength with Black voters and more moderate Democrats keeps this far from a lock.

Claude looks genuinely close to 55%, so a modest improvement or a new 2026 release could get the market to Yes. Still, the official evidence currently appears to sit just below the line, and the source inconsistency makes the higher market price look somewhat aggressive; I would put this around 69%.

I put this at 4%. Trump is likely to keep pressing for U.S. influence in Greenland, but an actual purchase of territory remains extremely unlikely because Greenland and Denmark oppose it and the realistic path is security or investment deals, not sovereignty transfer.

I estimate a 46% chance that the Chicago Pro Football Team relocates to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 regular season. The team is clearly exploring a move, but the lack of an approved Illinois site and the real possibility of an Indiana alternative make the market look a bit too optimistic on Illinois specifically.

USAID looks meaningfully vulnerable, but a true elimination is still not the base case because legal and congressional constraints are substantial. I estimate a 41% chance that it is eliminated in the sense this market is likely to resolve it.

Anthropic looks like a strong favorite to remain near the top of the arena leaderboard by the end of September, but the market appears a bit too confident given how much can change before a single-timestamp check. My estimate is a solid Yes lean, but lower than the current market price because OpenAI or Google could still overtake on the exact leaderboard used for resolution.

GRVT looks more likely than not to finish its first day of trading above a $150M FDV, with the main uncertainty being post-airdrop sell pressure rather than launch feasibility. I estimate a yes probability of 84%.

Sofia looks like the favorite, but the market price still seems a bit too optimistic given that the decision is not yet official and Burgas remains a credible rival. I would put Sofia at about 66% to host Eurovision 2027.

Marine Le Pen has a credible path to the presidency because she is eligible, has entered the race, and is polling first in the opening round. Still, the two-round system and the historically strong anti-RN backlash in a runoff keep her well short of a clear favorite.

I put the chance that Trump is both impeached and removed from office before the end of the term at 11%. The recent impeachment talk is real, but the constitutional bar for removal is still extremely high and the current evidence shows only threats and filing efforts, not a completed path to conviction.

July inflation looks much more likely to stay above 3.1% than to break below it. The latest data show meaningful improvement, but the available forward estimate still points above the threshold, making Yes a low-probability outcome.

I think formal elimination of the Department of Education is possible but still unlikely, with a meaningful path only if Trump gets stronger congressional alignment or finds a procedural route around the filibuster. My independent estimate is 21%, modestly above the market because the administration is already moving aggressively to hollow out the department even though legal abolition remains difficult.

Shri Thanedar still has a real path to the nomination thanks to incumbency, money, and name recognition, but the recent momentum and coalition-building around Donavan McKinney make him an underdog. I estimate Thanedar’s chance at 27%, higher than the current market price but still clearly below even.

China overtaking the U.S. in nominal GDP by 2030 looks unlikely to me, with the path blocked by a large starting gap, slower Chinese trend growth, and currency dynamics that work against a quick catch-up. I put the probability at 11%, which is well below the market price.

Charli xcx has a real path to #1 thanks to strong first-week sales projections, but the chart race looks too competitive to call her a clear favorite. I lean below the current market price because rival albums with heavier streaming profiles could still outpace her on Billboard units.

The market is priced as if there is a meaningful chance of a U.S. invasion, but based on the event’s own wording, the most likely resolution is still No unless the U.S. launches a true ground or occupation-style offensive. Recent strikes make the situation feel more escalatory, but they do not clearly satisfy the control-over-territory standard.

Iliana Iotova starts as the frontrunner and has a credible path to victory, driven by visible backing from the left and encouraging early polling. Still, the race is early and the runoff dynamic creates enough uncertainty that the market looks a bit too confident.

I lean Yes, but slightly below the market price. Trump is very likely to use million, billion, or trillion repeatedly in a cabinet meeting, though crossing the 30-word threshold still depends on how long and how improvisational the event is.

The film is already far enough along that a sub-490 finish by August 31 is still possible, but the strong opening, unusually good second weekend, and current momentum make it more likely to clear the threshold. I estimate a 10% chance of Yes.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks possible but still more likely than not to miss, because ETH starts the second half of the year well below the threshold and most recent year-end outlooks cluster under $3,000. I would price the Yes outcome at about 24%, modestly above the market but far from a favorite.

Extended clearing a $500M fully diluted valuation one day after launch is plausible but still a minority outcome. I would price Yes at 24%, slightly above the current market quote but below the broader tracker range.

I estimate a 41% chance that the President confirms exactly one Supreme Court justice during the 2025-2029 term. That remains the single most likely outcome, but the market looks a bit too confident in it because no vacancy exists yet and multiple plausible paths still lead to zero or two confirmations.

The probability of the United States acquiring any part of Canada before 2029 is very low, but not zero. Trump-style rhetoric and tariff pressure create headline risk, yet there is no visible pathway to a legal territorial transfer and public opposition is overwhelming.

Todd Blanche remains the clear favorite to be Trump's next attorney general, mainly because he is already the official nominee and is serving in the job on an acting basis. I am a bit less bullish than the market because the Senate fight is real and could still force a delay or a pivot to an alternative loyalist.

A direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before Jan. 1, 2027 looks unlikely, but not as unlikely as the market price suggests. I put it at 18% because the diplomatic channel is alive and a breakthrough could still force a leaders-level encounter for validation or signing.

Trump resigning before the end of his term looks unlikely, but not impossible given the long runway and the broad set of ways he could leave office early. My independent estimate is below the market because ordinary political pressure rarely translates into an actual presidential resignation.

I make this about 11% likely. It is still a long shot, but the Mayorkas precedent and a polarized House make a fresh cabinet impeachment more plausible than the raw historical record suggests.

Formal abolition of the Federal Reserve before Jan. 20, 2029 is still unlikely, but the odds are higher than a pure legal reading suggests because Trump could push for structural changes, leadership capture, or a de facto hollowing-out of the institution. I estimate about 9%.