US real GDP growth in 2035?
My baseline is that 2035 GDP growth is most likely to sit in the low-to-mid 2% range, with 2.1-2.5% the single most likely bucket and 1.6-2.0% close behind. I think the market is a bit too pessimistic on the central growth range and too generous to the 4.6-5.0% tail.
Analysis
The clearest signal from the supplied context is that long-run growth for advanced economies tends to cluster in the low single digits, while India and a few emerging economies can sustain materially faster expansion. Because the contender set is centered around 2% to 3.5% rather than around 6% to 7%, the most defensible interpretation is that this market is not really about India-like growth, and the modal outcome should sit in the low-to-mid 2% range rather than at the extremes.
Within the listed buckets, 2.1-2.5% looks like the best single estimate, with 1.6-2.0% and 2.6-3.0% also carrying meaningful weight. The 3.1-3.5% range is possible if productivity and investment stay firm, but it is already above what most long-horizon forecasts imply for mature economies. The 4.6-5.0% bucket looks like a thin tail unless the reference economy is a fast-growing emerging market, which the surrounding evidence does not strongly suggest.
Against the current market, the 10% Yes price looks somewhat low if Yes is meant to capture the main moderate-growth regime rather than a very high-growth tail. I would not call this a huge mispricing because the question is ambiguous and the far-right tail remains limited, but I do think the market is underweighting the 2.1-3.0% zone and overweighting the chance that growth lands in a clearly subpar or extremely high outlier band.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Medium-term forecasts cited in the context support growth in the low-to-mid 2% range for developed economies.
- Arguments for Yes: Structural boosts from AI and investment could keep growth above the weakest sub-2% outcomes.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: Europe-style long-run projections are still subdued, which limits the odds of a strong growth reading.
- Arguments against Yes: The far-right 4.6-5.0% bucket looks too high for most advanced-economy interpretations of the question.
Key drivers
- Long-run forecasts for advanced economies generally point to growth around 2% to 3%, which makes the 2.1-2.5% bucket the natural center of gravity.
- The question is ambiguous on geography, so the most plausible interpretation is a mature economy rather than an India-style high-growth case.
Risk factors
- If the underlying reference turns out to be a high-growth emerging market, the upper buckets would be far more likely than my base case assumes.
- A productivity or demographic surprise over the next decade could push the outcome into the 3.1-3.5% range or higher.
Scenarios
Best case
A favorable productivity cycle, especially from AI and capital deepening, keeps growth in the 2.6-3.5% zone and leaves a small but real chance of the 4.6-5.0% bucket if the series refers to a faster-growing economy.
Most likely
The outcome lands in 2.1-2.5%, with 1.6-2.0% and 2.6-3.0% as the main alternatives.
Worst case
The relevant economy is a mature one with weak demographics and modest productivity, pulling the result below 2.0% and making the higher buckets unlikely.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 34% | 10% |
| 1.6% to 2.0% | 26% | 8% |
| 2.6% to 3.0% | 20% | 8% |
| 3.1% to 3.5% | 12% | 8% |
| 4.6% to 5.0% | 8% | 8% |
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