2026: Trump's dream year?

My read is that the bull case is not dead, but it is a high bar because it appears to require several favorable developments at once rather than just one headline win. Immigration enforcement is already moving in Trump’s direction, tariffs remain a central policy tool, and there are active efforts around voting rules and Justice Department personnel that could strengthen his control over key institutions. Those are real positives for the case that 2026 could look politically and administratively strong for him.

At the same time, a true “dream year” for Trump is held back by legal and economic uncertainty. The E. Jean Carroll appeal, other Trump-adjacent controversies, and the possibility of renewed election or court fights all create persistent downside risk. On the macro side, inflation pressure, tariff-related costs, and any adverse market reaction to foreign policy escalation would make it harder for the bull case to look convincing in the aggregate, even if some individual policy wins land.

The current market price of 5.3% looks too low to me given that several elements of the bull case are already visibly in motion and could compound before year-end 2026. That said, I still would not assign a high probability, because the event seems to require a broad, synchronized success story across policy, markets, and institutional control, and that is much harder than a simple policy win. The market may be underweighting the chance of a partial but still event-qualifying success, but I do not think it is mispriced by an order of magnitude.