Edges for Jul 20, 2026

The market should resolve to Yes because Vice President JD Vance and CENTCOM officially announced the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran on July 18, 2026, which falls before the July 24 deadline.

The market will resolve to No because the actual Core CPI YoY for the period ending July 2026 (released as June 2026 data) is confirmed at 2.6%, which exceeds the 2.2% threshold.

The bear case for Trump is actively materializing in 2026 through major Supreme Court defeats on tariffs, scathing judicial rebukes of his litigation tactics, and legally contested massive monument rollbacks, making the 'Yes' outcome highly probable despite the market's 9% pricing.

USAID has already been effectively eliminated as an independent agency in 2025, with its functions folded into the State Department and operations ceased by July 1, 2025, making the 'Yes' outcome virtually certain despite its nominal legal existence.

The event is highly likely because Musk's earliest realistic crewed Mars timeline (2029–2031) falls well before the 2099 deadline, and the 73-year window provides massive buffer for delays; the primary risk is Musk's survival and willingness to travel at an advanced age rather than technical feasibility of a visit.

The market is severely mispriced because the average is already locked in at over 2,200 cases per year for the first two years of the term, making any 'low average' outcome virtually impossible unless the remaining years drop to near-zero, which contradicts current epidemiological trends.

Ali Khamenei is the #1 searched passing on Google for 2026 because he was assassinated on February 28, 2026, triggering unprecedented global media coverage, a week-long state funeral with delegations from over 100 countries, and massive regional instability that dominates search trends for passings this year.

The market is significantly mispriced; independent analysis indicates a low probability (15-20%) that Samuel Alito will resign during Trump's term, contrary to the 70% implied by current prices.

No, 'Little House on the Prairie: Season 1' will not be the top global Netflix show this week because it ranked No. 3 for the previous reporting week (July 6–12) with 6.4 million views, while 'I Will Find You' held the No. 1 spot with 11.5 million views for four consecutive weeks.

The probability that Barron Trump receives a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029 is effectively zero because no federal criminal charges or convictions against him exist, and a pardon legally requires an underlying federal case.

The market is significantly mispriced: while Representative Al Green has declared intent to file impeachment articles within weeks, the Republican-controlled House and Senate make actual impeachment mathematically improbable, suggesting the true probability is far below the current 60%.

The probability of another pandemic occurring before GTA VI's confirmed November 19, 2026 launch is extremely low, as no new pandemic has emerged in 2025–2026 and global health agencies have not declared any global health emergency.

The probability of quarterly GDP exceeding 5% in any quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is extremely low, as mainstream forecasts consistently project annual growth between 1.4% and 2.5%, with recent quarterly data showing 1.4% to 2.1% growth, making a 5% quarterly spike highly improbable without an unforecasted productivity shock.

Despite Kalmar FF leading 1-0 at the 26th minute, Malmö FF remains the stronger team by form and historical dominance, making a Kalmar win unlikely; the probability of Kalmar winning is approximately 35%.

The independent probability of a 25bps Fed rate hike in December 2027 is low at 18%, as the dominant consensus from Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg economists, and Morgan Stanley forecasts rate cuts or a hold by that date, with the only notable hike scenario (JPMorgan) pointing to September 2027 rather than December.

Despite holding the top spot on Spotify's global charts through May 2026, Die With A Smile faces significant risk of losing the year-end title due to the wide-open nature of the market, the emergence of new contenders like Bruno Mars' Risk It All, and the typical volatility of streaming data in the second half of the year.

NYC is projected to continue declining through 2027, making a 0.01%-0.99% population increase highly unlikely; the most probable outcome is a small decrease of 0-0.99%.

Trump will not take back the Panama Canal because it is legally impossible under binding 1977 treaties, Panama firmly rejects any transfer of sovereignty, and a military takeover is highly unlikely given geopolitical risks and lack of domestic or international support.

Kylian Mbappé is the market favorite but faces severe expert opposition due to Real Madrid's trophyless season and France's World Cup semi-final loss, making his Ballon d'Or win unlikely despite strong individual stats.

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment has never been invoked in over 57 years and faces insurmountable political barriers during Trump's presidency, making its use extremely unlikely despite recent public calls.

A Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 is highly probable, with market futures and major banks now expecting at least one 25-basis-point increase, most likely in September, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a policy reversal under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Trump will not buy Greenland because Denmark and Greenland have unequivocally declared the territory is not for sale, and no credible diplomatic or legal pathway exists for a purchase despite Trump's rhetorical interest and unconfirmed military options.

NVIDIA has a slight edge to remain the largest company by market cap on August 31, 2026, but the outcome is highly volatile due to Apple's recent ability to briefly overtake NVIDIA and NVIDIA's upcoming Q2 2027 earnings on August 26 that could swing the result.

NVIDIA currently holds a narrow lead over Apple as the world's largest company by market cap, but the margin is fragile with only a 54% market-implied probability of retaining the title through July 31, 2026, due to recent volatility and Apple's accelerating AI momentum.

Todd Blanche is Trump's formally nominated Attorney General and acting AG, but his Senate confirmation faces a razor-thin margin due to GOP doubts, Epstein-file controversies, and Senator Tillis's conditions, making his permanent appointment uncertain despite strong market confidence.

The probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal (≥60 daily arrivals) by December 31, 2026 is approximately 42%, as the current near-zero traffic, 80 uncleared mines, active US naval blockade, and renewed US-Iran fighting create severe structural barriers that likely prevent a full recovery within the five-month window.

The US acquiring any part of Greenland before 2029 is extremely unlikely due to Denmark's firm rejection, Greenlandic opposition, and international legal barriers, despite Trump's aggressive rhetoric.

NVIDIA is currently the world's largest company by market cap at approximately $4.92 trillion, so it will only be the second-largest if Apple or Microsoft overtakes it by July 31, 2026. Given the tight competition and recent volatility where Apple briefly surpassed NVIDIA on July 17, the probability of NVIDIA dropping to second place is moderate but less likely than retaining the top spot.

Ethereum is currently trading at $2,350, well below the $3,000 target, and with only 5.5 months remaining in 2026, the market-implied 20% probability reflects significant uncertainty. While optimistic bank forecasts like Standard Chartered ($7,500) and Citi ($3,175–$4,500) suggest a path to $3,000, the majority of technical models and conservative forecasts project year-end prices between $2,200 and $2,800, making the $3,000 threshold unlikely without a major catalyst.

Trump will not be impeached and removed from office because the Republican-controlled House blocks impeachment articles and the Senate lacks the 67 votes required for conviction, despite Rep. Al Green's recent declaration to file articles.

The probability of the U.S. adding a 51st state before Trump's term ends is near zero because all proposed territories (Canada, Greenland, Venezuela) are sovereign or autonomous entities that have explicitly rejected annexation, and no legal or legislative pathway exists for such an addition without their consent and Congressional approval.

The United States will not acquire any part of Canada before 2029, as the idea is universally dismissed as rhetorical posturing by both Canadian leadership and Washington analysts, with Trump himself stating military annexation is highly unlikely.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the most likely next Cabinet departure due to a serious Hatch Act complaint and prior scrutiny, but active engagement in duties and lack of confirmed resignation keep the probability below 50%.

Vesselin Dimitrov is not expected to win the 2026 Fields Medal because the winners were leaked as Yu Deng, Hong Wang, John Pardon, and Jacob Tsimerman, with prediction markets assigning these four over 98% probability while Dimitrov's odds remain negligible.

Andrew Oldham is a credible front-runner for Trump's next Supreme Court pick but faces significant competition from James Ho and others, plus a non-zero risk that no vacancy occurs before January 2029, making a 22% independent probability for his appointment reasonable.

Anthropic is the clear leader to IPO first, with a targeted October 2026 debut, while OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its listing to 2027 due to unresolved legal and structural issues.

The probability of a key rate decrease is low, estimated at 35%, as the dominant analyst consensus and recent inflation data strongly favor a rate pause at 14.25% to address rising pro-inflationary risks.

NVIDIA is currently the world's largest company by market cap but faces a tight, volatile race with Apple, giving it a slight edge to retain the title by December 31, 2026, with a 55% probability.

Scottie Scheffler needs one PGA Championship win before 2028 to complete the Grand Slam, but his current winless streak, longest major odds since 2023, and reduced career major expectation lower the likelihood significantly, making the market's 6% Yes price plausible yet potentially slightly undervaluing his elite status.

The probability of the US acquiring new sovereign territory before January 1, 2027 is effectively zero, as all potential targets like Greenland face absolute diplomatic rejection, legal prohibitions on forceful acquisition, and no active negotiations for sovereignty transfer.

The probability of Zelenskyy and Putin meeting before January 1, 2027 is extremely low (~13%) because Russia has consistently rejected Zelenskyy's proposals, refuses to agree to the required ceasefire precondition, and has no plans to travel to Turkey despite Ukraine's readiness.

The probability of a full-scale U.S. invasion of Iran to establish territorial control before 2027 is low, as current military plans focus on limited objectives like seizing specific islands near the Strait of Hormuz rather than nationwide conquest, despite active discussions of ground troop deployment.

The probability of no Head of State in Iran by end of 2026 is low (around 11%) because Mojtaba Khamenei, despite severe injuries and public absence, retains de facto authority backed by the IRGC and continues decision-making through proxies, making a complete leadership vacuum unlikely.

Despite severe conflicting reports about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility, the IRGC's recent release of a new image on July 11, 2026, claiming he is in 'complete health' and actively managing affairs, significantly lowers the probability of a leadership change by September 30. The market's 13% pricing reflects the IRGC-backed stability of the transition, and while Trump's claims of incapacitation create uncertainty, the most recent official Iranian data suggests he remains the de facto leader.

Arsenal is the market favorite to win the 2026-27 EPL title as reigning champions with strong managerial stability and squad depth, but the market-implied probability of 36.5% reflects a tight race against Manchester City and Liverpool, making a repeat title a plausible but uncertain outcome.

The probability of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 is high at approximately 81%, driven by the Fed's hawkish shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh, sticky inflation, and recent steady rate decisions in March and July 2026.

The CLARITY Act is unlikely to be signed into law in 2026 because it remains stuck in the Senate with no floor vote scheduled before the August 7 recess, leaving only about 20 usable business days to overcome multiple legislative hurdles including reconciliation and presidential signature.

The probability that any part of Cuba becomes the 51st U.S. state before January 20, 2029 is effectively zero due to the absence of any political movement, legal process, or diplomatic agreement, and because Trump's recent annexation references were AI-generated symbolism rather than policy.

Trump is unlikely to invoke the Insurrection Act before January 20, 2029, given his recent explicit statement that there is no current need, significant internal legal restraint within the White House, and specific federal statutes outlawing troops at polling stations that would block any election-interference use.

It is extremely unlikely the Fed will decrease interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting, as current data shows a 3.50%-3.75% rate, officials forecast only one 25 bps cut for the entire year, and a 50 bps single-meeting cut contradicts all median projections and market pricing.

France is a strong contender for the 2030 World Cup but faces significant hurdles including a generational transition, the potential appointment of Zidane, and Spain's home advantage as the defending champion hosting the tournament; the market's 20% probability appears slightly undervalued given France's historical depth and Mbappé's peak, though Spain's dominance makes them the true favorite.

Trump cannot end the Federal Reserve before January 20, 2029 because abolishing the Fed requires Congressional repeal of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which has no legislative support and is legally impossible for a president to do unilaterally.

The probability of a company announcing AGI before Jan 1, 2028 is approximately 42%, as most credible CEO timelines (Hassabis ~2030, Amodei ~2027 with high uncertainty) and community medians (Metaculus 25% by 2029) suggest the milestone is more likely to occur in the 2029–2033 window, though bullish outliers like Altman and Musk create a non-trivial tail risk.