Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

Andrew Oldham is explicitly identified as a current front-runner for a potential Supreme Court vacancy during President Trump’s second term, alongside Neomi Rao, with James Ho, Raymond Kethledge, and Amul Thapar also in the mix. He is a 5th Circuit judge appointed by Trump in 2018 and serves as general counsel to Texas Governor Greg Abbott, fitting the profile of a conservative jurist in the mold of Alito and Thomas that the White House is seeking. However, no vacancy is confirmed yet, and Justice Alito (76) and Thomas (77) are the primary targets for retirement, with Alito potentially stepping down at the end of the current term in roughly a month.

The market’s 15% Yes price for Oldham appears slightly too low given his explicit front-runner status and Trump-aligned background, but it is not wildly mispriced because the event requires both a vacancy and Oldham’s selection over stronger or more favored contenders. James Ho (13% market) is a direct 5th Circuit peer with similar conservative credentials, while Neomi Rao (not in the top 5 listed but mentioned as a front-runner) may have broader appeal in D.C. circles. Additionally, the possibility that no vacancy opens before January 20, 2029, is non-trivial and suppresses the probability for any single nominee.

My independent assessment raises Oldham’s probability to 22% because the market may be underweighting his explicit front-runner designation and Trump staffer pedigree, while overweighting the competition and vacancy uncertainty. The top five contenders’ market shares sum to 57%, implying a 43% chance that the next justice is someone else or that no vacancy occurs. I adjust this to a 35% chance of no vacancy/other, leaving 65% for the named contenders, and allocate Oldham 22% of the total (34% of the 65% contender pool), which is higher than his 15% market share but still below James Ho’s 13% market share due to Ho’s comparable profile and potential White House preference.