Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

As of July 20, 2026, Donald Trump has not been impeached or removed, though Representative Al Green formally declared he will file two to three articles of impeachment citing election integrity concerns. The House remains under Republican control, making any Democratic impeachment resolution highly unlikely to advance; existing Democratic resolutions have only about a 13% chance of leaving committee, and Green’s resolution has just one cosponsor. Even if impeachment somehow occurred, removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote (67 votes), a threshold never met in U.S. history and one Trump already survived twice with Senate votes of 52–48, 53–47, and 57–43.

Public support for removal has risen to 50%, but this sentiment does not translate into congressional votes without a major shift in House or Senate composition. Alternative paths like the 25th Amendment remain contested and untested, offering no realistic near-term mechanism for removal. The constitutional arithmetic—Republican House majority plus the 67-vote Senate bar—makes removal extraordinarily improbable unless Democrats gain both chambers and enough Republican defections occur in the Senate.

The market currently prices removal at 17%, which appears slightly elevated relative to the structural barriers. While the announcement of impeachment articles is a notable political development, it does not materially change the odds of conviction and removal absent a dramatic change in congressional control or bipartisan consensus. A more accurate independent probability is closer to 8%, reflecting the near-zero historical precedent for removing an impeached president and the current partisan alignment.