Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President plus a majority of Cabinet secretaries to declare the President unable to discharge duties, followed by a two-thirds congressional vote if contested. This mechanism has never been successfully invoked in over 57 years of the amendment's existence, despite multiple historical crises and internal discussions. The practical barriers are extreme: Cabinet members appointed by the President would almost certainly refuse to join such a declaration, and the Vice President typically owes their position to the President and would likely refuse to initiate removal.

During Trump's first term, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asked Vice President Mike Pence to invoke Section 4 following the January 6 Capitol attack, but Pence refused, stating it was not appropriate for the circumstances. In Trump's current second term (2025–present), renewed public debate has emerged due to Trump's alleged cognitive impairment and incoherent rhetoric, with figures like California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Yassamin Ansari calling for invocation. However, as of July 2026, no Vice President or Cabinet majority has submitted the required declaration, and no congressional vote has occurred.

The market currently prices the Yes outcome at 26%, which appears significantly inflated relative to the factual reality. The market may be overreacting to recent media coverage and political rhetoric without accounting for the constitutional and political thresholds that make successful invocation virtually impossible. Unless an unprecedented alignment of VP, Cabinet, and Congress occurs—something with zero historical precedent—the probability remains extremely low. The 26% market price likely reflects speculative sentiment rather than grounded probability assessment.