Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
The CLARITY Act is unlikely to be signed into law in 2026 because it remains stuck in the Senate with no floor vote scheduled before the August 7 recess, leaving only about 20 usable business days to overcome multiple legislative hurdles including reconciliation and presidential signature.
Analysis
As of July 20, 2026, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) has passed the House (294–134 on July 17, 2025) and cleared the Senate Banking Committee (15–9 bipartisan vote on May 14, 2026), but it has not been scheduled for a full Senate floor vote. The bill was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, 2026, making it eligible for consideration, yet Senate leadership has not announced a debate or vote date. This delay is the primary bottleneck preventing 2026 passage.
Even if the Senate passes the bill, significant remaining steps include reconciling the Senate version with the House-passed version, securing a 60-vote threshold on the Senate floor, and obtaining a presidential signature. These steps require coordinated action across chambers and the executive branch within a shrinking timeframe. Analysts note that the Senate’s August 7 recess represents the last realistic opportunity for floor action in 2026, leaving roughly 20 usable business days to complete all remaining legislative work.
Prediction markets have sharply reduced the probability of 2026 passage, with Polymarket at 38% Yes, Gate Prediction Market at 35%, and other sources reporting odds as low as 32%. Galaxy Digital previously estimated 60% in June 2026 but now describes the scenario as a "coin flip" due to the narrowing legislative window. The delay has shifted from a political issue to a compliance deadline for the crypto industry, and a potential shift in congressional power after the November 2026 midterms could further reduce passage likelihood.
Arguments
For
- The bill has strong bipartisan support in both the House and Senate Banking Committee
- It is formally eligible for Senate floor consideration and placed on the legislative calendar
- Industry pressure and compliance deadlines may incentivize leadership to schedule a vote
- The bill addresses critical regulatory clarity for digital assets, a high-priority issue
Against
- Senate leadership has not scheduled a floor vote despite calendar eligibility
- Only ~20 business days remain before the August recess, making 2026 passage highly constrained
- Reconciliation between House and Senate versions adds significant procedural complexity
- A 60-vote threshold on the Senate floor and presidential signature are additional hurdles
Key drivers
- No Senate floor vote scheduled before August 7 recess
- Only ~20 usable business days remain for 2026 passage
- Need for reconciliation between House and Senate versions
- Requirement of 60-vote Senate floor approval and presidential signature
Risk factors
- Senate leadership may not schedule a vote before the August recess
- Reconciliation process could extend beyond 2026
- Midterm election outcomes in November 2026 could alter congressional balance
- Presidential signature may not occur if bill reaches the desk late in 2026
Scenarios
Best case
Senate leadership schedules a floor vote within the next 10 business days, the bill passes with 60+ votes, reconciliation with the House version is completed quickly, and the President signs it before December 31, 2026.
Most likely
The Senate does not schedule a floor vote before the August recess due to leadership inaction, the bill remains stalled through the remainder of 2026, and passage is delayed into 2027 or beyond.
Worst case
No Senate floor vote occurs before the August 7 recess, the bill stalls until 2027, and congressional power shifts after the November midterms make passage substantially less likely.
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