Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

Representative Al Green has formally announced on the House floor that he will file and force a vote on new impeachment articles against President Trump within weeks of his July 16, 2026 remarks, with organizers targeting a vote potentially before the end of 2026. This declaration, combined with a federal judge voiding Trump's $10 billion IRS lawsuit as illegal self-dealing and Trump's recent speech on election integrity, has intensified Democratic calls for a third impeachment. Two resolutions (H.R. 537 and H.R. 1155) are already pending before the House Judiciary Committee, signaling organized effort rather than mere rhetoric.

However, the structural obstacles are overwhelming: the House is currently Republican-controlled, and GovTrack estimates the current resolutions have only a 13% chance of advancing out of committee. Even if articles pass the House (requiring 218 votes), removal requires 67 Senate votes, but Republicans hold the majority and analysts note a pro-removal coalition lacks the necessary votes. Trump was acquitted in both previous trials (2019 and 2021), with the 2021 vote reaching only 57–43, and no credible reporting shows Republican support for impeachment for new offenses.

The current market price of 60% for 'Yes' appears to overreact to Green's dramatic declaration while underweighting the mathematical impossibility of crossing the 218 House and 67 Senate thresholds without Republican defections. Even assuming a minimal 1% chance of any Republican defecting, computational models suggest impeachment likelihood remains low unless defection rates reach implausible levels (5%+). Prediction markets like Polymarket show more calibrated odds: 12% by end of 2026, 14% by January 2027, and 65% by January 2028, suggesting the market is front-loading a near-term event that lacks the necessary political math.