Core CPI YoY - July 2026

The Core CPI YoY figure relevant to this event has already been reported as 2.6% for the 12-month period ending in June 2026, released on July 14, 2026. This reading represents a 0.3% decline from the previous month's 2.9% but remains significantly above the 2.2% threshold required for the 'Yes' outcome. The data missed the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.2%, indicating softer inflation than forecasters anticipated, yet the absolute level is still too high to satisfy the condition of being 2.2% or less.

The monthly core inflation rate for June 2026 was flat at 0.0%, missing the consensus forecast of +0.3% by the widest margin in over a year. While this flat monthly print and the downward trajectory from 2.9% to 2.6% suggest moderating inflation pressures, the annual rate has not decelerated enough to reach the 2.2% target. The Federal Reserve's 2% target is now closer than expected, but the gap between 2.6% and 2.2% remains substantial at 0.4 percentage points.

Even if the market definition refers to the upcoming August 12, 2026 release covering July data, current trends indicate inflation is moderating but unlikely to drop 0.4% in a single month to reach 2.2%. The confirmed 2.6% reading for the June period is the definitive data point for the 'July 2026' event title in prediction markets, which typically refers to the data released in July. Since 2.6% is strictly greater than 2.2%, the 'No' outcome is the mathematically certain resolution based on available official data.