NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

New York City lost 12,000 residents in 2025 (-0.14% decline) and is estimated at 8,546,038 in 2026 with a further -0.45% annual decline, indicating a continued downward trajectory. The NYC Comptroller projects sluggish growth or leveling off due to a steep slowdown in international arrivals and steady domestic out-migration, with no signs of a reversal to positive growth by 2027. Economic constraints including high housing and food costs, stagnant employment, and federal immigration policies are driving adult population decline, with domestic out-migration exceeding international in-migration by 114,000 residents in 2025.

To achieve a 0.01%-0.99% increase over the July 2025–July 2027 period, NYC would need to reverse its current -0.45% annual decline and grow cumulatively by 0.5%-1.0%, which contradicts all current data and projections. The market's 45% probability for this outcome appears significantly mispriced, likely overestimating the chance of a trend reversal without evidence of improving migration flows or economic conditions.

The most likely scenario is a small population decrease of 0-0.99%, consistent with the -0.14% decline in 2025 and projected -0.45% decline in 2026, suggesting a cumulative two-year decline of approximately 0.6%-0.8%. A decrease of 1-1.99% is also plausible if declines accelerate, while increases of 1% or more remain unlikely given the structural out-migration pressures.