Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?

Scottie Scheffler has won three of the four majors needed for the career Grand Slam—2024 Masters, 2025 U.S. Open, and 2025 Open Championship—but has not won the PGA Championship, which is the only missing leg. The next opportunity to win the PGA Championship is in 2027, giving him roughly two chances (2027 and potentially early 2028 if the event timing allows) before the January 1, 2028 cutoff. His 2026 form has been concerning: no major wins, a 4th-place finish at the Open, and a winless streak since January 2026, with his odds for a major at +700—the longest in three years.

Experts note that failing to win a major in his age-30 season (2026) reduces his projected career major total from 7.0 to 6.2, statistically lowering the chance of securing the fifth major needed for the Grand Slam within the tight timeframe. Despite this, Scheffler remains the betting favorite for the 2027 PGA Championship, with odds opening around +400, implying roughly a 20% chance per event. With two potential opportunities, a naive calculation might suggest ~36% probability, but form decline and the difficulty of winning a major compress that significantly.

The current market prices the Yes outcome at 6%, which aligns with Kalshi's 15.6% implied probability mentioned in recent analysis but appears even more skeptical. This suggests the market is heavily discounting his ability to close out the Grand Slam due to his current slump. However, Scheffler's historical dominance, age-30 prime status, and continued favorite status in 2027 suggest the market may be slightly overcorrecting, making 12% a reasonable independent assessment that acknowledges risk while respecting his elite ceiling.