Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic is the clear leader to IPO first, with a targeted October 2026 debut, while OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its listing to 2027 due to unresolved legal and structural issues.
Analysis
Anthropic has confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, and is actively targeting an October 2026 Nasdaq debut, positioning itself as the first pure-play frontier AI lab to trade publicly. Wall Street banks view this early Q4 2026 listing as the most likely outcome, with investor meetings already lined up and a valuation goal of approximately $1.2 trillion, which has already surpassed OpenAI in secondary markets.
OpenAI filed its S-1 later on June 8, 2026, but executives appear hesitant, signaling an intent to wait until 2027 to secure a valuation near $1 trillion rather than rushing to list by late 2026. CFO Sarah Friar has flagged late 2026 or 2027 as the likely window, with 2027 becoming more probable due to market conditions and unresolved issues including an Apple lawsuit and the Public Wealth Fund structure.
The current market price of 81% for 'Yes' reflects strong confidence but appears slightly mispriced given the clarity of Anthropic's aggressive timeline versus OpenAI's strategic delay. Unless OpenAI abruptly accelerates its timeline to meet an October 2026 deadline, which contradicts recent reports, Anthropic is the clear leader to IPO first, suggesting the true probability should be higher than the market currently indicates.
Arguments
For
- Anthropic filed its S-1 first and has a confirmed target of October 2026
- Banker consensus indicates Anthropic is more likely to price first in early October
- Anthropic's higher valuation provides more leverage to proceed with listing sooner
- OpenAI executives are hesitating and signaling intent to wait until 2027
Against
- No official IPO date has been announced for Anthropic, and timing could change
- Market conditions may postpone large-model company IPOs from H2 2026 to H1 2027
- OpenAI could accelerate its timeline if market conditions improve unexpectedly
- SEC review process delays could impact both companies' IPO timelines
Key drivers
- Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, ahead of OpenAI's June 8 filing
- Anthropic's targeted October 2026 IPO date versus OpenAI's lean toward 2027
- Anthropic's higher secondary-market valuation of ~$1.2T compared to OpenAI's ~$1T
- OpenAI's unresolved Apple lawsuit and Public Wealth Fund structure delaying its timeline
Risk factors
- Market conditions could force Anthropic to postpone its October 2026 debut to H1 2027
- OpenAI could abruptly accelerate its timeline to meet an October 2026 deadline
- SEC review process delays could impact both companies' IPO timelines
- Declining risk appetite among investors may affect IPO pricing and timing for both firms
Scenarios
Best case
Anthropic successfully IPOs in October 2026 at a $1.2T valuation, becoming the first pure-play frontier AI lab to trade publicly while OpenAI delays to 2027.
Most likely
Anthropic IPOs in October 2026 as targeted, while OpenAI waits until 2027 to secure a higher valuation, making Anthropic the clear first IPO among the two.
Worst case
Market conditions deteriorate significantly, forcing Anthropic to postpone its October 2026 IPO to H1 2027, while OpenAI accelerates its timeline and IPOs first in late 2026.
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