Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

The Strait of Hormuz is currently effectively closed to normal commercial shipping, with daily transits collapsed to near zero (0–2 tankers) compared to a pre-crisis baseline of 60–140 vessels. As of July 12, 2026, only 10 commercial vessels were recorded, representing less than 2% of normal traffic, while over 150 ships remain stranded in the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf awaiting clearance. The central route is physically obstructed by an estimated 80 mines that require clearing, and recent attacks have disabled AIS transponders on many vessels, making accurate tracking and safe passage impossible without significant remediation efforts that have not yet begun.

The geopolitical environment has deteriorated sharply, with renewed fighting between the US and Iran causing traffic to grind to a halt and the IRGC declaring the strait closed until the end of US interference. President Trump reinstated a US naval blockade on Iranian shipping effective July 14, 2026, which restricts specific traffic lanes and complicates coordination for any potential recovery. Although Oman has issued a temporary, coordinated traffic plan with controlled, phased movements, this represents a safety protocol rather than normal routing, as vessels must travel in groups through scheduled holding areas rather than following standard commercial patterns.

The market resolution criteria require a 7-day moving average of at least 60 arrivals, which demands a return to approximately 60 daily vessels—far above current levels of 0–2. While war insurance is available, ship masters refuse transit due to crew safety risks, and major operators like Mitsui OSK Lines state they will not resume transits until the strait is proven safe in practice. The US White House claims the Strait is open and oil is flowing, but this contradicts data showing no VLCC or LNG tankers have passed for two consecutive days recently, indicating official statements may be politically motivated rather than reflective of actual conditions.

Historical context suggests that even after the June 17 interim peace deal, traffic averaged only 28 ships per day in the first 18 days, far below the pre-war average of 88 per day. The breakdown of the truce on July 8 and subsequent escalation mean that the conditions for recovery are worse than during the brief reopening period. With only five months remaining until December 31 and the current trajectory showing continued decline rather than improvement, the structural barriers of mine clearance, safety guarantees, and blockade removal create a low probability of achieving the required threshold.