Edges for Aug 3, 2026

Starbucks is already above the 41,800-store threshold in its latest reported results, and management’s 2026 opening guidance makes an above-threshold 2026 report highly likely. I put the Yes probability at 96%.

Trump already has multiple concrete 2026 setbacks in court, so the bear-case narrative looks more likely than not. The market’s 11% price appears too low unless the event definition is far narrower than the news flow suggests.

Barron Trump receiving a presidential pardon by Jan. 21, 2029 looks extremely unlikely absent some new federal legal exposure. My independent estimate is 3%, far below the current market price.

Chinese labs are competitive enough that a top-3 breakthrough is plausible, but the leaderboard has recently been dominated by Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google. I think the market is slightly too pessimistic, though the path to Yes still requires one Chinese model to beat several entrenched frontier systems.

Robinhood looks more likely than not to finish 2026 above 30.2 million funded customers, though it still needs meaningful incremental growth from its Q2 base. The combination of strong deposits, product launches, and acquisition-driven gains makes Yes the likelier outcome.

USAID looks eliminated in practical terms already, with its programs, staffing, and functions largely absorbed into the State Department. The main uncertainty is whether the market settles on de facto shutdown or insists on a formal legal abolition, which keeps the probability below a near-certain level.

Anthropic has a real chance to finish first, but the current price looks too confident for a leaderboard that can change quickly. I see a modest edge for Yes rather than the near-certainty implied by the market.

I put the highest probability on the 1.6% to 2.0% growth band for 2036, and I think the market is somewhat underpricing that center. The official long-run CBO anchor and the private forecast cluster both point to a slow-growth economy near 1.8%.

Austin metro home values appear to be hovering right around the $446,000 threshold, with recent metro-level readings slightly above and slightly below that line. Given buyer-friendly conditions and recent softness, I lean modestly toward a Yes outcome, but the margin is thin.

Widow's Bay looks more likely than the market implies to land in the 0-or-1-award bucket, but its broad nomination slate and a strong acting favorite still make a multiple-win outcome slightly more likely overall. I put the chance of Yes at 36% and No at 64%.

I assign a low single-digit to high-single-digit chance that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is formally used during this presidency. The constitutional bar is so high, and the political incentives are so strong against invoking it, that the most likely outcome is still no.

I put the chance of the United States actually acquiring any part of Greenland before 2029 at 9%. The political attention is real, but a genuine transfer of territory or sovereignty remains highly unlikely.

I put the chance that Trump resigns before the end of his term at 4%. The event is possible only through an unusual combination of legal, political, or health stress, and there is no public sign of a resignation path developing now.

Moonshot has shown enough WebDev upside to keep this live, but the current board puts it well behind the leaders and I think the market is overestimating how likely a late-month climb is. My estimate is that Moonshot finishes second about one-third of the time, not close to a coin flip.

Alito has a meaningful but far-from-certain chance to leave before Trump’s term ends. His age and the strategic appeal of retiring under a Republican president support Yes, but the absence of any concrete retirement signal keeps the probability below the market’s current enthusiasm.

I think there is only a very small chance Trump actually takes back the Panama Canal in the literal sense of restoring U.S. control over it. The most likely outcome is continued pressure, rhetoric, and possibly concessions around ports or security, not a sovereignty transfer.

I estimate a modest but real chance that 2026 develops into a Trump-friendly year, mainly through continued market strength and at least some political durability. The legal and midterm headwinds are substantial, so this is far from the base case, but the market’s 5.5% price looks too low.

My independent estimate is that Trump has a meaningful but not dominant chance of being impeached again before Jan. 20, 2029. I put the probability at 45%, below the current market price because rhetoric and proposals are not the same as a House impeachment.

I see the 1.6% to 2.0% band as the single most likely outcome, with 2.1% to 2.5% still a meaningful but secondary possibility. Relative to the market, I think the central low-2% outcomes are underpriced and the tails are overemphasized.

I think the small-increase band is somewhat less likely than the market suggests, with NYC more likely to be flat or slightly down over the July 2025 to July 2027 window. My independent estimate for a 0.01% to 0.99% increase is 32%.

Recent reporting strongly favors No: the conflict is in a paused, de-escalatory phase and there is no visible sign of a U.S. ground invasion plan. I assign only a small tail risk that renewed escalation could still produce a late-2026 invasion.

I think the U.S. almost certainly will not acquire Greenland during Trump’s term. The most realistic outcome is continued rhetoric and strategic cooperation, not a sovereignty transfer, so I put no-acquisition at 95%.

I see a meaningful but still minority chance that Trump invokes the Insurrection Act during this presidency. His repeated threats and preference for maximal executive leverage make it plausible, but the legal threshold and political blowback keep it from being the base case.

Gianni Infantino is under meaningful political pressure, but the available reporting still points more toward survival than a forced exit by year-end. I estimate a materially lower chance than the market price that he is out as FIFA president before December 31, 2026.

The most likely 2033 outcome is still a modest, sub-3% growth rate centered in the high-1% to low-2% range, with the 1.6% to 2.0% band slightly favored. The market looks too pessimistic on the middle of the distribution and too eager to lean into weak-growth or near-zero scenarios.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks possible but not likely enough to be the base case. The market is pricing in a low probability, and while bullish catalysts exist, they would need to line up over the next few months for the threshold to be hit.

Trump’s rhetoric keeps the idea alive, but an actual purchase of Greenland or even part of it remains a very long shot. I put the chance at 7%, well below the current market price, because the main realistic path is still a defense arrangement rather than a territorial sale.

RFK Jr. is the single most plausible next Cabinet departure, but the odds are still only moderately above even because there is no confirmed firing or resignation. I put the chance he is next at 34%, slightly above the market.

Keith Sonderling remains the overwhelming favorite because he is already the acting secretary, has been formally nominated, and cleared committee on a party-line vote. I still put him a little below the market because floor timing, Senate churn, or a Trump pivot can interrupt what looks like a near-done confirmation path.

Trump being impeached and then removed from office before the end of his term looks unlikely. I put the chance at 7%, driven by the low historical rate of presidential removal and the steep Senate supermajority barrier.

I put the chance of a company publicly claiming it has achieved AGI before Oct. 1, 2027 at 25%. The market looks somewhat too optimistic because the hurdle is not just model progress but a formal, defensible corporate announcement of achieved AGI.

I think there is a meaningful chance OpenSea’s token clears a $500M FDV one day after launch, but the overall probability is still well below even odds because launch timing and initial market structure are both uncertain. My estimate is modestly above the current market price, but not by much.

A qualifying U.S.-Iran meeting before September 30 looks more likely than not, so I put the probability of no such meeting below the current market price. The ongoing mediated channel makes a complete stall possible, but not the most likely outcome.

Variational can plausibly debut with a strong valuation, but an $800M FDV one day after launch still looks more likely than not to miss. The market’s own adjacent prices imply a meaningful chance of a large launch, yet not enough to make this threshold the favorite.

Anthropic looks like the strongest single bet to finish August with the top-ranked model, but the price is a bit too high given how quickly these leaderboards can move in a one-month window. I still think Yes is much more likely than No, just not quite as close to certain as the market implies.

My independent read is that the chance of at least one quarter above 5% annualized real GDP during the Trump presidency is lower than the market implies. I put it at 24%, because the baseline growth outlook is solid but still far from the kind of boom typically needed to clear that threshold.

DTF St. Louis looks more likely than not to finish with at most one Primetime Emmy win, mainly because several of its best opportunities have been moved out of the televised ceremony. Still, the show remains strong enough that a second win is a real possibility, so this is not close to a lock.

NVIDIA is the favorite because it has recently reclaimed the top market-cap spot and currently appears to have a real lead over Apple. I still think the chance is a bit lower than the market price implies because a month is long enough for a volatile leadership flip, so I put Yes at 71%.

I estimate only a very small chance that the United States acquires any part of Canada before 2029, roughly 3%. The rhetoric is loud, but there is no credible pathway from rhetoric to an actual territorial transfer.

I think China overtaking the US in nominal GDP by 2030 is unlikely, with a probability around 11%. The gap is still too large, and the remaining time is too short for China to close it without an unusually strong growth surprise or a US downturn.

I think the chances Trump truly expands H-1B or broader high-skill immigration are low. The clearest evidence points toward tighter access, higher costs, and more scrutiny rather than a genuine expansion.

Anthropic has a real chance to finish near the top, but the exact condition here is narrow: it must be second on a specific leaderboard snapshot, not merely strong overall. I think the market is underestimating that possibility somewhat, but it is still a low-probability outcome.

Alibaba is clearly in the Chinese AI top tier, but the exact second-place finish is a narrow and fragile outcome. I think the market is roughly right to price this as a low-probability event, though not as low as a true longshot.

Anthropic looks more likely to IPO before OpenAI, mainly because it filed earlier and its reported late-2026 path still appears more intact than OpenAI’s. I think the market is a bit too confident, but not dramatically so.

I think a July CPI print at 3.1% or below is possible but still unlikely. The most recent data and nowcasts point to cooling inflation, but not enough cooling to make a sub-3.1% result the base case.

Alibaba looks like the favorite because its new Qwen3.8-Max has just moved to or near the top of Chinese-model rankings on the relevant arena leaderboard. The main question is whether competitors can narrow the gap or overtake it before the month-end check.

I think there is a low but non-trivial chance that June 2026 JOLTS openings come in below 7.2 million. The latest evidence still points more strongly to a print above the threshold, so my probability of Yes is modest and slightly above the market price.

claude-opus-5-max is a real contender and the current favorite, but the lead is not secure enough to call this a lock. I think it is somewhat more likely than not to finish first on the August 17 Arena leaderboard.

Gavin Newsom looks like a credible early frontrunner, but the race is still too fluid for him to be favored outright. I estimate his chance of winning the 2028 Democratic nomination at 23%, a bit above the current market but still far from a majority.

Marine Le Pen has a real path to victory because she is polling strongly in the first round and has shown improved runoff numbers against several mainstream opponents. Still, legal uncertainty and the French system’s tendency to unify against her in a decisive second round keep this below even odds, so I rate her chances at 35%.

Mbappé has a real but limited path to the 2026 Ballon d'Or. His historic scoring numbers keep him in the conversation, but the lack of a major team trophy and stronger narrative cases for rivals make him a clear underdog rather than a favorite.

Arsenal look like the most likely single winner, but the title race is still competitive enough that a yes outcome is far from assured. I would price Arsenal at about 41% to win the 2026-27 Premier League.

The evidence still points to a severely disrupted Strait of Hormuz rather than a normal one, so I think a return to at least 60 seven-day-average transits by September 30 is possible but unlikely. The current market price looks a little generous on the Yes side, and I would put the chance of Yes at 19%.

I think an Illinois relocation remains the most likely outcome, but only by a modest margin. The market is correctly treating Indiana as a real fallback, yet the lower resolution bar of an official announcement before 2028 keeps Illinois in front.

Spain is the right favorite, but the true win rate is still only around one in five because World Cups are volatile and the horizon is long. I am a little more bullish than the market on Spain, mainly because of host advantage and the strength of the current program.

Google has a real path to the top if Gemini 4 or another late-2026 release lands strongly, but the current evidence still points more toward Anthropic or another rival finishing first. I see Google as an outsider with upside rather than the most likely winner.

Elon Musk has recently been posting at a very high rate, and the market window is only 48 hours long, so fewer than 40 countable posts is possible but not the base case. I rate the chance of under 40 at 23%, with the more likely outcome being a total in the 40 to 64 range.

Hacks has a strong chance to win multiple Emmys, so the 0-or-1 outcome looks uncommon. I still give it a small chance because a crowded field could limit the show to a lone acting or writing win, or even a shutout.

Alibaba is the clear favorite because it already appears to lead Chinese models on the relevant arena-style rankings and has just launched a very strong new flagship. The main reason not to assign an even higher probability is that Chinese leaderboard leadership can change quickly if a rival ships a competitive update before the September check.