Will the US take control of any part of Canada?

The baseline case is overwhelmingly against a U.S. acquisition of any Canadian territory. A lawful transfer would require Canadian consent and a durable political process in both countries, while any coercive move would collide with international law, NATO politics, and massive domestic resistance in Canada and likely in the United States as well. The current evidence shows loud annexation-style talk, but no serious institutional mechanism, no treaty drafting, and no visible Canadian willingness to entertain it.

The most plausible route to a Yes outcome would be an extraordinary crisis that reshapes both politics and security, yet even then the bar is extremely high. Public opinion in Canada is deeply opposed, Canadian leaders have categorically rejected the idea, and the U.S. has not demonstrated any meaningful congressional or executive coalition that would spend political capital on territorial acquisition. Trade disputes and rhetorical pressure can create headlines, but they do not resemble the legal or diplomatic preconditions for actual annexation or transfer.

Against that backdrop, the current market price of 9% looks too high. The market may be assigning too much weight to Trump-era rhetoric and to the broad wording of the question, which includes even small territorial changes. Even allowing for that flexibility, I think the probability remains in the low single digits because the gap between provocative language and an executed transfer is enormous, and there is no visible bridge from one to the other.